Yesterday's data has renewed market discussion around a December rate cut. Currently, CME swap rates indicate an 82.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December.

In terms of U.S. economic sentiment, although the CPI data rebounded, it did not exceed expectations, which is in line with the Fed's expectations in Powell's speech last week.

Therefore, CPI data in the short term will not prompt the Fed to change its decision-making. In addition, the next President of the United States, Trump, takes the initiative to significantly cut interest rates, which may indirectly affect the subsequent actions of the Federal Reserve.

Furthermore, the market has gradually accepted the expectation that inflation may rise in the future, so inflationary pressure is no longer a significant negative factor in the short term.

The focus of Powell's last speech was that the Fed is looking for the right neutral rate and making policy adjustments around this rate.

At present, the neutral interest rate may be higher than market expectations, and this topic may become the focus of the Federal Reserve's next step. If you want to delve deeper into the currency circle, but can't find a clue and want to quickly understand the information gap, whether it is contracts or spot, you can learn more in my profile #美国CPI公布后降息预期上升 #超级MEME周期？ #Mt.Gox地址动向