Written before the CPI in the evening, the US October CPI will be released at 21:30 Beijing time. Many friends think that the correction in the past two days is due to the risk aversion of some investors to CPI. As for whether it is difficult to have a clear answer, it will be clearer after the CPI is over.
First of all, let me talk about my personal opinion. I don’t think the current CPI has much impact. One is that the Fed’s monetary policy is unlikely to change because of one month’s data. As early as the September interest rate meeting, Powell publicly said that the expectation at that time was two 25s, and the dot plot also showed the same.
Some friends may say that if the CPI rises? Wouldn’t it affect the Fed’s judgment? In fact, the Fed looks at the core PCE. Although the core PCE can be inferred from the CPI (core) data, it may not be very accurate. Secondly, in Powell’s two speeches, he almost anticipated the possibility of repeated inflation, and said that he would see more data, and even denied the possibility of raising interest rates again under normal circumstances.
So I think today's impact on the Fed is not that big, but it may have an impact on user sentiment. After all, from the market's expected data, except for the possible increase in broad CPI, everything else is the same as last month, and broad CPI (CPI annual rate) is also the most concerned by everyone, so when the data is the same as expected, it is not ruled out that there will be a small wave of selling in the market, but it is likely to be only short-term. Unless the CPI data increases significantly, it should not affect the current trend of #BTC.
Of course, if the data is lower than expected, after all, it is the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then it will definitely be good for the market. But the actual benefits will also be very limited. At this stage, more games are in the economy, not necessarily in inflation.
