$BTC

Brothers, the cycle forecast of Bitcoin trend is here! Bitcoin is currently on the 554th day of the cycle, and it is predicted that it may reach a peak in mid-2025, which coincides with the market's forecast of a US recession. Let's take a look at the key analysis:

1. Cycle peak forecast: The average cycle of the Bitcoin market is 56 days, from returning to average annual growth to reaching the peak. This cycle starts around mid-2023. If it remains stable, it may take about 200 days, which means it may reach its peak in mid-2025!

2. Overlap of macroeconomic and Bitcoin cycles: JPMorgan Chase predicts that there is a 45% probability that the United States will fall into a recession in the second half of 2025. In this way, the overlap of Bitcoin's highs and economic downturns may affect investor behavior, especially in the context of uncertain macroeconomics. At this time, the importance of asset allocation strategies is magnified.

3. Volatility and growth potential: Bitcoin's actual volatility is 50%, and this year's implied volatility has reached a new high, indicating that future market volatility may increase. Looking at the RSI, it is currently 60, which is far below the high point of the previous bull market, but by extending the review period to four years, it shows huge room for growth, suggesting potential further growth in the coming year!

4. "Stabilization" signal for long-term holders: The inactive supply of Bitcoin (long-term unused) has gradually increased at record prices, indicating that long-term holders are still optimistic about the market outlook, but everyone should also pay attention. If a large number of old holders begin to transfer assets, this may mean a shift in market sentiment or the beginning of profit-taking.