Madman said…
Bitcoin has once again reached a position close to US$90,000 (posted at 3:44 am). Combining various data and bull market cycles, madmen first make a judgment. The bull market is not over yet, and a short-term retracement is around the corner.
The bull is not over, it does not mean that the market will not correct, but there is no sign of peaking yet, keep a steady mind, sit still and hold on patiently, do you still remember the cup-handle K-line chart that the madman gave you before? After new highs, there are still waves of trends. We are still in the first wave. There will be adjustments later and new highs will be reached again. The bull market process does not happen overnight, but requires one platform after another.
Specific to the point, what will happen next depends on several factors. The first is on-chain data, the second is the ratio and strength of long and short positions in the contract, the third is CME futures gap data, the fourth is market sentiment, and the third is The fifth is the situation during the peak season of altcoins.
Let’s talk about the callback point first. On-chain data shows that the current Bitcoin supply situation on the chain is close to the extreme short-term risk, which means that the market may experience a larger correction at any position between "90,000 US dollars to 110,000 US dollars." In the callback, from the perspective of chip dispersion, "US$77,000 to US$79,000" and "US$82,000 to US$86,000" all have large vacuum periods. It is difficult to find decent support at these positions, so "US$81,000" or "US$81,000" Only below "$77,000" can there be real callback support.
Similarly, CME futures gap data also shows us this feature. CME Bitcoin futures jumped upward over the weekend, forming a gap of "$77,000-$80,000". According to historical data, the probability of being filled in a week is 45%. , the probability of filling in two weeks is 61%, the probability of filling in three weeks is 80%, and the probability of filling the overall gap is 94%. Therefore, we should believe that the high probability will be corrected to around US$77,000 within the month, which is also consistent with the chain The data points are consistent.
Looking at the long-short ratio of the contract, more than 5 billion will be liquidated if it falls to 72,000 US dollars, and more than 3 billion will be liquidated if it falls to 77,000 US dollars. Therefore, the final conclusion of the callback position given by the madman will be between "70,000 US dollars to "77,000 US dollars" range, this should be relatively reasonable. If bulls are likely to fall sharply, don't be afraid to jump in and be brave to pick up chips.
The current market sentiment is overheated, with the greed index reaching 87, and FOMO sentiment appearing in the MEME currency sector. Until now, the bull market can be said to be the only main line of MEME currency, whether it is Binance’s currency listing guidance or the market’s hype sentiment , all in MEME currency, so the FOMO sentiment in MEME currency also means that the short-term correction will not be too far away, and it is not recommended to gamble with large positions.
The overall situation of the altcoin peak season is not bad. The current dominance of Bitcoin is still close to 60%, even slightly higher than the previous two days. This shows that we are still in a bull market and chips have not been distributed in large quantities.
Based on the above logic, we can draw a simple conclusion that the market may continue to rise in the short term, but the psychological expectation of the round number of 100,000 US dollars is likely to cause a short-term overheating correction in the market, and the callback point will most likely not fall below 70,000 US dollars. , below $80,000 is the time to gradually pick up chips. The mid- to long-term bull market process has not changed, and the top structure has not yet been seen. The possibility of the end of the bull market is not considered for the time being.
Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.
"[Madman Talks about Trends] Don't be afraid to stick in, be brave and pick up the chips." This article was first published on (Block Guest).
