Is there still a bull market in altcoins? How much of an increase counts as a bull market?
Everyone has their own understanding. Many people believe that if Bitcoin rises several times and altcoins rise dozens or hundreds of times, that is a bull market. So let's learn from history and take a look at the two largest markets: the US stock market and the A-share market. The US stock market has shown a long-term bull trend, with most of the time seeing increases followed by sharp declines. In the 1980s, there was also significant inflation in the US, with the CPI reaching as high as 14% in 1980.
Under Volcker's aggressive interest rate hikes, it wasn't until 1985 that it gradually controlled inflation back to the 2-3% range. The NASDAQ (which is more relevant to the crypto space) rose 40 times from its low in 1985 to the peak of the tech bubble in 2000, a 40-fold increase in 15 years. After the 2008 financial crisis, another long bull market started from 2009 to 2024, which was another 15 years, but this time it was less than 16 times, with a 15-fold increase in 15 years.
Looking at the A-share market, it was immature and had a bull market of 11 times in its early days. Later, with the introduction of T+1 and price limits, the highest bull market was in 2008, rising 6 times from 998 to 6124. After the leveraged bull market in 2015, there has been no significant index bull market trend since then.
The above are all objective facts. Bitcoin is like a combination of the US stock market and the A-share market, with significant bull and bear cycles (technically it has halved). The price is also in a long-term bull market similar to the NASDAQ. Bitcoin benchmarks the index, while altcoins benchmark individual stocks. As the market cap increases, the rate of increase in a given time period will inevitably decrease, in line with objective laws.
Bitcoin's increases have been 500 times in the first round, 130 times in the second round, 17 times in the third round, and currently 4.7 times in this round. The increase has also significantly decreased. Based on this, the low point of this round, 15558*17 (rounded, don't be too strict) = 264486, is considered the upper limit area based on previous rounds of increases. Bitcoin's current value of 100k corresponds to a bottom of 6.4 times, which is already a significant benchmark compared to traditional markets, and far exceeds gold. Now, with a 4.7 times increase, reaching a market cap of 1.5 trillion is already the passing line for bull market increases. It's like a rebound after a sharp drop; once it passes the initial technical rebound range, the certainty is highest, but there are more factors to consider for further increases, and the process will be more complicated.
From a macroeconomic cycle perspective, the bull market for altcoins may come relatively late, but it will definitely happen. I expect the altcoin bull market to erupt next month.
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