Article reprint source: Odaily Planet Daily
Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Wenser (@wenser 2010)
At about 9:00 on November 11, according to OKX market data, the BTC price once surged to around $81,733, which also means that Bitcoin has officially stabilized at the $81,000 mark, entering the "80,000 era" that countless people dream of, and is only about 23% away from the "100,000 US dollar mark". Stimulated by many favorable factors such as Trump's successful victory in the US presidential election, the continuous inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin has once again begun its "journey to the stars and the sea."
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize views related to market trends in this article for readers' reference.
Nationally: The situation looks very good, with Trump's rise leading Bitcoin to become a strategic reserve.
In a previous article (Is Bitcoin's New High of $75,000 the Starting Point of a Bull Market?), we mentioned that Trump's election could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market in several ways:
Cryptocurrency regulatory attitude;
Creation of CBDC digital dollar;
Bitcoin strategic reserves;
Selection of key positions in various government departments, including the SEC chairman;
Trends in US political and economic policies.
In the short term, the most significant influence is Bitcoin's strategic reserves; in the long term, crypto regulation and key positions in government departments such as the SEC chairman will continue to affect the attitude of the US and the world towards the cryptocurrency industry. According to analyses from multiple institutions and industry experts, as Bitcoin prices continue to rise, Bitcoin's national strategic reserves may become a choice for more and more sovereign nations.
Trump's election plans to include BTC in national strategic reserves: favorable for BTC.
With Trump's election, sentiment in the global cryptocurrency market has significantly changed. Many experts generally believe that Trump's adherence to BTC policies will have a positive impact on BTC and is expected to drive its adoption as a national strategic reserve.
Under Trump's leadership, the crypto market will return to a preference for the value storage attributes of BTC. Many experts believe that Trump's election undoubtedly injected a shot of adrenaline into the crypto market led by BTC.
Bitcoin Magazine CEO: A certain sovereign nation is quietly accumulating Bitcoin and has become one of the top five holders.
David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine and one of Trump's campaign crypto advisors, recently discussed the possibility of an unnamed sovereign nation quietly purchasing Bitcoin. He stated, 'At least one country has been actively buying Bitcoin and is now among the top five holders. We hope to hear news from them soon.'
Some community users believe Qatar and Saudi Arabia might be the unnamed countries referred to by Bailey, who stated they are not China, Ukraine, the UK, Finland, or Georgia.
German parliament member Joana Cotar: If the US adopts BTC as a strategic reserve, European countries will all FOMO.
According to Bitcoin Magazine, German parliament member Joana Cotar stated, 'If the US buys Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, then I believe all European countries will experience FOMO.'
Fundstrat co-founder: BTC may reach $100,000 this year and become a treasury reserve asset to offset the US deficit.
Fundstrat co-founder and head of research Tom Lee stated in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin could become a treasury reserve asset to help cover the US deficit. Bitcoin still has the potential to reach $100,000 this year, with significant upside.
National level steadfast holders of Bitcoin: El Salvador and Bhutan.
According to The Bitcoin Office in El Salvador, El Salvador is still continuously purchasing 1 BTC daily. As of November 11, its Bitcoin holdings have reached 5,930.77 BTC, valued at approximately $480 million.
Meanwhile, the Kingdom of Bhutan is actively mining Bitcoin, with relevant data showing its weekly Bitcoin mining output is about 55 to 75 Bitcoins, worth approximately $3.6 million to $4.9 million. Previously, when Bitcoin's price surged to $71,000 on October 29, it transferred 929 Bitcoins to Binance, worth about $66.12 million. Currently, according to data from the Arkham website, Bhutan holds 12,562 Bitcoins (worth about $1.02 billion).
At the institutional level: Investor interest is growing, and industry giants are continuing to accumulate.
Meanwhile, as news of Trump's election spreads further, institutional investor interest is also increasing, becoming the main driving force behind Bitcoin's price breakthrough.
Bloomberg ETF analyst: Due to the Trump effect, the US Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.4 billion in funds on November 7.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that due to the Trump effect, the US Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.4 billion in funds on November 7, with BlackRock's IBIT attracting $1.1 billion. The US Bitcoin ETF absorbed $6.7 billion last month and has attracted $25.5 billion so far this year, now close to 93% of the target to surpass Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million Bitcoins.
The ETF Store president: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF asset size has surpassed its gold ETF
According to Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, last Friday, BlackRock's Bitcoin exchange-traded fund iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) surpassed the asset size of its gold exchange-traded fund iShares Gold ETF (IAU), achieving this in just 10 months. The iShares Gold ETF (IAU) was launched by BlackRock in January 2005.
BTC ETF > Gold ETF
MicroStrategy founder: Will continue to accumulate BTC.
Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, hinted that he would continue to accumulate BTC, stating, 'I think the saylortracker website needs more 'green dots.' (Odaily Planet Daily note: This website tracks the accumulation records of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases, with green dots indicating BTC purchases.)
According to previous reports, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have gained over $10 billion in unrealized profits.
VanEck CEO: The potential price of BTC is $300,000 per coin.
VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck previously stated that Bitcoin would set a historical high on Friday, after which the BTC price first broke $77,000.
When asked whether he thinks Bitcoin will reach $100,000, he stated: 'Bitcoin will set a new historical high—if it sets a new historical high today, I believe it will rise further. My basic assumption is that the overall value of Bitcoin will eventually be half of the total unpaid value of gold, so its potential price is about $300,000. Individual investors are indeed pouring into Bitcoin ETFs in large numbers.'
Gemini co-founder: The rise of Bitcoin to $80,000 is driven by stable institutional ETF demand, not retail FOMO.
Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss stated that Bitcoin reaching $80,000 is mainly driven by continuous institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs, not retail investor activity. He believes that this 'sticky' demand from institutional investors is a sign of long-term bullish sentiment, and the current market cycle is still in its early stages. Winklevoss said, 'The road to Bitcoin reaching $80,000 is paved by stable ETF demand. It's not retail FOMO. There's no big fanfare. People are buying ETFs, not selling them. This is sticky HODL-style capital. The floor price is continuously rising; we just won the coin toss, and the game hasn't really started yet.'
Bitwise CEO: The rise in Bitcoin's price will not trigger concerns about overvaluation similar to stocks.
Bitwise Invest CEO Hunter Horsley stated that Bitcoin set a historical high this week, but it did not trigger investor concerns about overvaluation like stocks. 'Bitcoin is different,' he explained, 'when a company's stock rises, its price-to-earnings ratio also rises, at some point, people will say, 'this is overvalued,' and then they will become less interested until the price drops.'
Horsley added that in the absence of similar financial performance indicators, 'when Bitcoin's price rises, people will think it is more likely to succeed, thus making it more valuable, so it is likely to rise further.'
CoinShares head of research: BTC rising to $100,000 only requires about a 33% increase, which only accounts for 10% of the gold market share.
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill previously stated that there are four catalysts that will drive Bitcoin's price up in the future: changes in SEC leadership, crypto-friendly regulations, further adoption of cryptocurrencies by large companies, and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. James Butterfill further explains that Bitcoin rising to $100,000 means it has another 33% growth potential, and a $100,000 Bitcoin 'doesn't sound that unreasonable', as its market cap is equivalent to 'only 10% of the gold market share.' Coupled with Trump's victory and the Republican control of the Senate, it may be easier to promote the 'expected relaxation of regulatory frameworks', making it possible to achieve.
Galaxy research head: Bitcoin has set multiple historical highs this week but has not shown any signs of 'overheating'.
Bitcoin has repeatedly set new historical highs, but there are no signs of 'overheating'. Several analysts point out that some fundamental factors suggest Bitcoin may rise further. 'From a fundamental perspective, the market does not appear to be overheated,' said Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, in a market report. Crypto analysis firm Nansen analyst Aurelie Barthere also expressed a similar view. 'Bitcoin breaking historical highs under high trading volume is a clear signal of sustained positive momentum following the election.'
A Japanese listed company, Metaplanet, saw its stock price rise over 1000% this year, becoming the best-performing Japanese stock.
Simon Gerovich, CEO of the Japanese listed company Metaplanet, previously stated that the company's adoption of a Bitcoin strategy has led to its stock price rising about 1,017% so far this year, making it the best-performing Japanese stock in 2024. The company launched its Bitcoin plan in April and has now become the second-largest Bitcoin corporate holder in Asia, second only to Boyaa Interactive. According to Yahoo Finance data, its stock price has risen 740% in six months, from $190 in April to $1,596 at Friday's close.
Standard Chartered Bank: After Trump's victory, Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of this year.
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, previously stated that after Trump's victory, Bitcoin's price will reach $125,000 by the end of this year and $200,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast echoes estimates from research and brokerage firm Bernstein analysts earlier this month.
It is evident that when countless TradFi asset management giants, listed companies, and Bitcoin reserve strategy executors enter the fray, their positions become closely intertwined with the cryptocurrency industry.
Industry experts analyze: Risks still exist, holding remains the best choice
Although the market greed index has rapidly surged, in an overly enthusiastic and FOMO-driven environment, many crypto analysts and industry builders have also provided some differing views. Below is an overview of representative viewpoints:
CZ: As Bitcoin continuously sets historical highs, investors should engage in proper risk management.
CZ previously stated that as Bitcoin continuously sets historical highs, investors also need to engage in proper risk management. There will be many more lows (and highs) ahead, and one should ensure they can handle them, control their greed, and not put all their eggs in one basket.
CryptoQuant CEO: Advises Bitcoin holders to gradually sell, warning against the risks of fully investing.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of crypto analysis platform CryptoQuant, stated last Thursday that new investors often hold Bitcoin during bear markets and will easily transfer it after experiencing losses about two years later when the market stabilizes. He believes that now is the time for this transition, and Bitcoin may rise another 30-40% from current levels but will not replicate the 368% increase starting from $16,000. He advises investors to consider gradually selling rather than continuing to 'fully invest.'
On November 10, likely stimulated by Bitcoin's new high, it reiterated that 'Bitcoin has just entered the price discovery phase.' At the same time, it also warned today that Bitcoin's price at the end of the year might be slightly below $59,000, pointing out that overheating in the futures market is one of the main reasons for a potential drop at the end of the year.
Is Bitcoin entering a value discovery phase?
Presto Research analyst: $100,000 will be the next 'interest level' for Bitcoin
Presto Research investment analyst Min Jung stated that traders are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's prospects. 'In the short term, due to the symbolic nature of numbers and digital changes, $100k will become the next major interest level. The US may eventually add Bitcoin to its balance sheet, perhaps as part of a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' or similar asset. Considering this, our target is in the range of $110,000.'
It is evident that despite certain risks, some industry participants remain cautious about the currently overheated market.
Retail trends: New investors are reacting to the news, while mature investors continue to accumulate.
Under the influence of various factors, individual retail investors are also 'running to enter the market', and the 'Trump effect' may continue to impact the participation of investors in the cryptocurrency industry.
Bitcoin's Google search volume surged after Trump's election, which may indicate new investors entering the market.
Market observers noted that after Trump won the election, Bitcoin's Google search volume surged, indicating increased interest in digital assets among retail investors. Solv Protocol co-founder Ryan Chow stated that Trump's victory is 'the main catalyst for starting the next bull market.' Crypto macro analyst Noelle Acheson said, 'Overall, retail investors tend to be 'latecomers' as they are influenced by price-related headlines and widespread social attention. Due to the absence of retail investors, market observers can speculate that the crypto cycle is in its early stages; when retail begins to 'flood in', we will know we are approaching the peak of speculation.'
IntoTheBlock: After the US election, the daily large transaction volume of Bitcoin surged to $90 billion
According to IntoTheBlock, after the US election, the large transaction volume of Bitcoin surged, reaching a peak of $90 billion on November 6, indicating a significant increase in whale activity.
(Rich Dad Poor Dad) author: Currently holds 73 Bitcoins, plans to hold 100 in a year.
(Rich Dad Poor Dad) author Robert Kiyosaki stated that he previously purchased his first Bitcoin at $6,000 and will continue to buy at $76,000. He currently holds 73 Bitcoins and plans to hold 100 Bitcoins in a year.
Viewpoint: Bitcoin prices may rise to $100,000 in January 2025 when Trump takes office.
Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at cryptocurrency custody firm Copper.co, believes that by January 20, 2025, when Trump is inaugurated as president, the price of Bitcoin could reach $100,000. He added that these increases 'occur against a backdrop of a weak dollar, which is different from the strong dollar environment today.' Given that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds currently hold about 1.1 million Bitcoins, momentum in the coming months could be positive.
In addition, Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, stated that although it is difficult to predict Bitcoin's price, reaching the $100,000 target in a few months 'doesn't seem far-fetched.' He added, 'Given the bullish momentum, coupled with the fact that the economy avoided recession, we expect Bitcoin's downside is limited at this time. A $100,000 target looks very reasonable.'
Overall, individual retail investors remain optimistic about the market outlook, and the continuous wealth effect or popular market is expected to attract new investors.
Conclusion: BTC price breaking $100,000 will be a new starting point, but risk management must be in place.
From a national, institutional, and individual perspective, as Bitcoin stabilizes above $80,000, its price breaking $100,000 has become a matter of when, not if. However, during this process, the market may experience multiple small adjustments, and after Trump officially takes office in January next year, Bitcoin strategic reserves and a series of crypto-friendly regulatory measures are worth looking forward to.
Before this, perhaps as Bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester previously said, 'Bitcoin rising to $79,000 and setting a new high is just the beginning; it's a time to maintain the right practices and stabilize. There's no need for any rash actions; HODLing will work for you.'
