Local time on November 9, major U.S. media outlets including the Associated Press and NBC calculated that the elected President Trump will win in Arizona, securing 11 electoral votes.
This means Trump swept 7 swing states in the 2024 U.S. election, achieving a total of 312 electoral votes for a landslide victory. In the 87% of votes counted in Arizona, Trump's vote share was 52.6%, while Democratic presidential candidate Harris's vote share was 46.4%. The Associated Press stated that analyses of Arizona's voting history, county-level political demographics, and the latest voting results show that Harris has no chance of overtaking, thus calculating Trump's victory. The latest counting results released by U.S. media show Trump winning in Arizona NBC report screenshot U.S. media calculated that Trump will win in all 7 swing states (New York Times) report screenshot.
The Associated Press pointed out that in Arizona's elections over the past decade, Democrats have consistently maintained a lead in four counties: Apache, Coconino, Pima, and Santa Cruz. However, Harris's support in these counties is far lower than that of incumbent President Biden's performance in 2020. In Maricopa County, which has a large number of votes, Harris is significantly behind Trump. Maricopa County is home to Arizona's capital Phoenix and major cities such as Tempe and Mesa, and has always been a focal point for candidates from both major parties. In the 2016 election, Trump led by 3 percentage points in this county. In the 2020 election, Biden led by 2 percentage points in this county. Although Harris briefly took the lead on election night, Trump maintained an advantage throughout the counting process in Arizona.
Voting situation in Arizona's counties NBC report screenshot As one of the key swing states in the U.S., Arizona's largest group is independent voters, followed by Republican voters and Democratic voters. Most voters in the state tend to choose early voting, with nearly 90% participating in early voting in the 2020 election. Therefore, the counting process in Arizona is relatively slow, potentially taking 10 to 13 days to tally all votes. The American 'Politico News' pointed out that Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes, has leaned Democratic in recent years, and the current governor, Katie Hobbs, is also a Democrat, but Trump successfully turned the state back into Republican hands. Arizona has the fourth largest Hispanic voter population in the U.S., and polls indicate that Trump gained support from Hispanic voters in the election.
