We have had a discussion about the prospects of the Ton price, and I decided to explain my position in detail.
Tokens of blockchains grow due to either an increase in token burning with a rise in the number of transactions, or an increase in the number of holders who do not sell their coins. In Ton, tokens are not burned but go to validators, who are very likely to sell them, so simply increasing the number of transactions does not drive growth directly. This was evident in the summer when transactions grew incredibly, but the price remained stable. However, the income of validators is increasing, and as a result, the desire to stake coins for earning income from validating transactions is growing (staking in Ton is gradually increasing).
In older blockchains, there are a huge number of whales who hold coins in their accounts and continue to buy more. Additionally, there are ETFs traded on exchanges through which more or less long-term investors enter. And there are a bunch of funds around the world that either buy Ethereum/BTC for themselves or do it for their large clients. If a large investor decides to enter crypto, they buy Bitcoin first, then Ethereum, then Solana, and only then whatever comes to mind.
The Ton blockchain is rarely bought by large Western investors, and with the stir around Pavel Durov, it is obvious they will do it even less often, as this story has added toxicity to the already questionable reputation of the blockchain (related to the history of mining and centralization of coin ownership).
It is obvious that the Ton foundation also understands this issue and actively promotes the blockchain among Asians and Arabs - just look at where their events are held. 👍
On the other hand, Ton is not a traditional blockchain about innovations (financial and technological), it is about mass adoption of crypto (with the caveat that it is mainly in third world countries and Russia). Again, it's great that this part is handled by the team that created the super popular platform for applications and games on VK! 🔥 For the attractiveness of the blockchain among major investors, it would be better if the ecosystem grew through useful and long-term projects, but crypto is like that - no blockchain can boast of something more, sustainable, and really useful; for example, Solana has recently turned into a meme coin platform and nothing. 🤷♂️
What is the outcome: in favor of mass adoption and a cool team, against - Western investors, in the middle are Asians and Arabs.
I personally believe in Ton, I believe that the ecosystem will develop into something very large, demand for tokens will grow, and everything will be great. But along the way, there will still be many problems, both technical and legal, as well as purely organizational, so nervous investors should refrain. I hold Tons alongside other blockchains. And this is definitely not an investment recommendation.
