There may be three possible scenarios in the cryptocurrency market:
One is that U.S. stocks and BTC continue to soar, BTC gains without an altcoin season or a small-scale altcoin season. This continues until the first half of next year, followed by a slight recession in the U.S. economy, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market, marking the end of the bull market.
The second scenario is a collective pullback in U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market, possibly with a small black swan event, where major players take advantage of the situation to sell off and accumulate. Then, around the second quarter of next year, the bull market gradually starts, and an altcoin season arrives.
The third scenario is a combination of the above two, with two waves of bull markets: first, U.S. stocks and BTC continue to soar, BTC gains without an altcoin season or a small-scale altcoin season. This lasts until the first quarter, then there is a decline due to an event impact. Following that, as the event impact fades and interest rate cuts accelerate, the market restarts in the second half of the year, leading to a rotational altcoin season lasting until the end of the year.
The probability of the first scenario is relatively low. The second and third scenarios are difficult to predict because the difference between these two scenarios lies in whether there will be a wave of sentiment-driven bull market. If there is a first wave of bull market, it should be a "fantasy" market driven by trading sentiment, where the industry narrative and capital liquidity are not yet in place, making market sentiment extremely volatile and hard to predict.
Which scenario do you lean towards? Feel free to leave a comment in the comment section!
