With the end of the U.S. elections and the interest rate cut in November, these two positive factors have been realized, and Bitcoin has also reached a historical high. The upper side is already a sea of stars, with no pressure, and higher positions are just a matter of time.
After the positive news is realized, Bitcoin is also facing a critical phase in the short term. The rising volume is starting to shrink. If a doji candle appears here, that would be a signal to exit in the short term. This can be judged relatively easily from the daily trend chart, and the upcoming pullback will be the last opportunity to board this bull market.
After all, with the realization of positive news, there will need to be new narratives and points of speculation in the future. There are still more than two months until President Trump's new term on January 20, 2025, and speculation can still continue. Next, there will be an interest rate cut meeting on December 17-18, followed by another meeting on January 28-29, 2025.
While interest rate cuts are indeed important, only by lowering rates to a neutral rate of between 3-3.5% can true liquidity be brought. The recent cut of 25 basis points to 4.75% is clearly still some distance from the neutral rate. I hope Trump's presidency can accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts.
Moreover, U.S. debt has already surpassed 7 trillion USD, which will face greater interest payment pressure. This can only be alleviated through rapid interest rate cuts, and then we will welcome the true fourth Bitcoin halving and the altcoin bull market.
There is indeed a demand for pullbacks in the short term. The current high is in the 76900 area. Once an overbought signal appears, sustained volume must increase to maintain the price rise. If the volume starts to decline while the price continues to rise, it will be difficult to maintain higher prices. Therefore, at this time, do not blindly chase after the rise; after the pullback will be the last opportunity to board this bull market.
Currently, if there is a pullback, we will first look at the first support level around 74000-73500, because this position is the starting point of the second wave's decline. The last round of pullback adjustments started from here, and after a one-sided drop to 66800, the third wave of rise began. Therefore, this position is the first buying point.
The second support level at 70000 is also the lifeline for bulls. This week, the uptrend was established only after breaking through 69500-70000. According to the correction range of the large cycle, the current price is consolidating around 76000. A drop of 5000 points after a high is normal as long as it does not break 70000; buying on dips is an opportunity. The third explosive phase of the bull market may occur at the end of this year or early next year, targeting 80000-100000 USD.
Of course, this is just my personal opinion and thoughts for everyone's reference. Lao Xiao's understanding of waves and trends has never failed in his career. If your operations are not ideal, you can walk with the light. It is both redemption and rebirth. Lao Xiao, a pioneer who has stepped into the crypto world for seven years, is dedicated to rescuing every suffering victim trapped in the mire. Reach out your hand, and I will pull you up!
