The upcoming market may have three scenarios:
The first scenario is that the US stock market and BTC continue to soar, BTC drains liquidity, with no altcoin season or a small-scale altcoin season. This continues until the first half of next year, followed by a slight recession in the US economy, leading to a decline in the US stock market and cryptocurrency market, ending the bull market.
The second scenario involves a collective pullback in the US stock market and cryptocurrency market, possibly even a small black swan event, where major players take advantage of the situation to sell off and accumulate. Then around the second quarter of next year, a bull market gradually starts, and an altcoin season arrives.
The third scenario is a combination of the above two, where the first wave of bull markets sees the US stock market and BTC continue to soar, BTC drains liquidity, with no altcoin season or a small-scale altcoin season. This lasts until the first quarter, followed by a pullback due to event impacts. Next, as the event impacts fade and interest rate cuts accelerate, the market restarts in the second half of the year, leading to a rotating altcoin season that continues until the end of the year.
The probability of the first scenario is relatively low. The second and third scenarios are difficult to predict because the difference between these two scenarios lies in whether there will be a wave of sentiment-driven bull market. If there is a first wave of bull market, it should be a trading sentiment "fantasy" market, where industry narratives and capital liquidity are not in place, and market sentiment is highly volatile and difficult to predict.
I tend to favor the second scenario, which may be influenced by personal positions, currently holding 60%.