Let's talk about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the early morning. Overall, there were no exquisite surprises, and it felt calm and even somewhat bland.
This time, Federal Reserve officials unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the adjustments in the statement were clearly cautious—shifting from previously emphasizing 'confidence in inflation' to 'making progress,' and the quarterly update on employment changed from 'growth' to 'market is slowing down.' It is not difficult to see that the Federal Reserve's panic this time seems to remain vigilant and observant. Despite the bright non-farm data in September, it continues to show an upward trend, while October's CPI slightly exceeded market expectations, so they did not show excessive forward-looking attitude.
Powell's press conference was nothing new; it still follows the cautious route of 'data-dependent, step by step.' He emphasized that if the economy performs well, the pace of rate cuts will slow down; if the economy declines, the pace of rate cuts will accelerate. Hmm, this familiar 'flexibility'!
There was a question that brightened the eyes of everyone present: someone asked Powell, 'What would you do if Trump asked you to resign?' Powell firmly replied, 'I will not resign, and the law also allows the president to fire me!' This response showed confidence, as the Federal Reserve Chairman is determined to maintain his independence and uphold the credibility of the Fed.
It is indicated that if Trump really comes to power, a contest between the two may be inevitable, but after all, Trump has always favored interest rate cuts, which may put greater pressure on the Federal Reserve in the future.
Regarding everyone's concern whether there will be continued interest rate cuts in December, Powell's recent statements seem to have been adjusted downwards. Generally speaking, unless unexpected events occur, there will not be a significant rebound in the recent surge, and there should still be the possibility of rate cuts in December. Although if Trump implements harsh stimulus policies in the future, it may increase some inflation expectations, the short-term impact will be limited, and the trend of rate cuts is more probable.
Returning to the market situation, Bitcoin's recent new high has prompted short positions to flee. Such intense fluctuations suggest Bitcoin may need a temporary rest, which undoubtedly gives Ethereum an opportunity to perform.
On the other hand, the ETH/BTC trend has begun to show strength, with funds flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum for two consecutive days, indicating a significant trend. The continuous net inflow of over 50 million into the Ethereum ETF over the past two days seems to hint at a short-term new high, and the market has indeed improved.
After the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, Bitcoin surged briefly in the early morning, reaching 76850 USD before retracing; at the same time, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones also set new highs, but the Dow closed with a 'dark' doji star, showing some uncertainty in the market.
The US dollar index was ahead, and gold was expected to rebound. Although this interest rate cut brings short-term benefits, the future extent of rate cuts will be lifted; this wave of good news may just be a temporary sweetness, while in the medium term it may gradually stabilize or even experience fluctuations.
Looking at the trend:
In the past three days, Bitcoin has risen about 8.5% and is currently consolidating in the upper range, showing an alternating upward trend of adjustments and rises.
It is believed that the probability of a significant drop in the short term is low; if a pullback occurs due to some profit-taking, it may instead present an entry opportunity, and one can look for suitable average holding points.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 76600
Second resistance level: 77300
Support level reference:
First support level: 75800
Second support level: 75400
Today's trading suggestion:
If the current upward trend continues, although it may not be in the short term, the possibility of testing 80000 will also increase. Therefore, attention should be paid to whether there will be a rising low and refreshing high. If the high temporarily moves down, the closing of the K-line can be seen as an entry opportunity for short-term adjustments.
In today's trading, since we are currently in an upward trend, it is recommended to maintain a rebound view for trading. The upward momentum is strong, so the risk of holding short positions is high. It is suggested to only focus on short-term downward opportunities, with psychological resistance levels at 78000 and 78500.
99% of those eager to profit in the cryptocurrency circle usually go through three stages:
The first stage is an experiential journey, often resulting in small gains followed by large losses, or the money earned is completely lost.
The second stage is to solidify beliefs, gain small benefits, summarize experiences and lessons after encountering new things, and thus form one's own rhythm.
The third stage is the moment that truly has the potential to change one's fate. With strategy, timing, discipline, and perhaps a bit of luck, one may be able to earn considerable wealth.
It is rare for someone to return home with full load and retire successfully in the first phase; more people exhaust their capital and cannot reach the shores of success. Being able to persist at the 'table' is already remarkable.
In summary, everything seems beautiful during the up cycle; everything appears terrible during the down cycle. Therefore, when information floods in, it is most important to remain humble and cautious. The more eager one is to act, the more losses are often incurred. Strive to cultivate a good mindset, excellent discernment, and high focus on tasks!
