According to the latest data, Donald Trump may become president of the United States again. As the leader of the world's largest economy and the country that issues the global reserve currency, his economic policy will inevitably impact key financial markets. I have studied Trump's election program and analyzed what prospects investors may expect in different sectors.
Key market forecasts
1. Real Estate
Under Trump's leadership, the real estate market is likely to continue its decline. This may be due to his aggressive economic measures, which will lead to high interest rates and reduced mortgage availability. Additionally, potential cuts to support programs and benefits in the construction sector may weaken demand.
2. Stocks
The stock market may show explosive growth in the early stages due to tax reforms and tax cuts that are typically supported by the Republican administration. However, this growth is likely to be temporary: once the euphoria subsides, signs of recession may emerge, leading to a decline in stocks. Such volatility may create opportunities for experienced traders but will require caution from long-term investors.
3. Bonds
In times of recession, investors often seek safe assets such as bonds. It is expected that during a potential recession, bond prices will rise and their yields will decrease. For those seeking stable instruments, bonds may become a good alternative to riskier assets.
4. Cryptocurrencies
The cryptocurrency market is expected to grow. Trump's program includes unusual proposals such as creating a 'strategic reserve of BTC.' Although this seems like an exotic step, his support for cryptocurrencies could give the market an additional boost and strengthen the position of digital assets in the U.S.
Trump's important promises that could impact the economy
Trump's election program includes resonant statements that may impact the economy. Some of them are well-known calls, such as tightening immigration policies. However, there are also more mundane but equally important points that affect the markets:
Tax cuts: Continuation of the line on tax relief for businesses. This could provide a short-term boost to the economy and the stock market but will also increase the budget deficit, which could be a problem in the long run.
Strengthening the dollar: Trump's program aims to bring production back to the U.S., which could strengthen the dollar and reduce interest in emerging market currencies. For exporters and global companies, this will be a challenge as their products become less competitive abroad.
Support for strategic industries: The program aims to protect American manufacturers from international competition and support key sectors, which could lead to growth in some stocks but will generally weaken global supply chains.
How to prepare for changes?
Considering the transitional period (Trump will take office and gain powers only in January), it is important for investors to 'keep their finger on the pulse.' In the coming months, there may be high volatility against the backdrop of expectations and policy changes. Preparing for possible scenarios is not just a way to preserve capital but also a chance to increase it.
I have formulated clear recommendations for capital management in each of the mentioned directions. If you are interested in a detailed analysis and specific steps on how to best adjust your investments to future changes, subscribe to my updates on YouTube @investorgrafic, where I share analytics and strategies for investors.
Trump as president is not just an interesting political event but also an important factor for the economy and financial markets. Be prepared for new opportunities and challenges!
What do you think will happen to the exchange rate #BTC in December 2024? Write in the comments, and let's laugh together! 😁
