Today, in this new era, I have something important to say:
The future of ETH.
Adverse situation:
1. The inflow of 9 Ethereum spot ETFs has been poor.
2. The performance of the public chain ecosystem is not as bright as SOL's.
3. The user base of ETH's mainnet is already less than 10% of SOL's.
4. Due to inflation, the narrative of ultra sound money has been undermined.
5. The narrative of fuel has also been weakened by L2.
6. In terms of gas revenue, ETH, SOL, and TRON are already on par. However, ETH's sustainability is better.
Favorable situation:
1. ETH's prediction market, Polymarket, gained attention during the election period, showing that the application layer of ETH still has highlights.
2. Third-party DAs like Celestia have already been defeated by ETH.
3. On the day of the election results, facing the same event, ETH's increase finally flipped BTC. ETH finally broke through the resistance level of 2820.
ETH's response measures:
1. Chain abstraction to unify user interactions across multiple L2 and EVM ecosystems.
2. Alignment to recapture MEV value from various L2 back to ETH.
3. ETH has two more engines: ETFs are brewing; RWA is on the way.
Price trend:
1. ETH/BTC trading pair continues to hit new lows.
2. There is still a factor of 2 away from the previous high.
3. There is still a factor of 4 away from many analysts' predicted high point of $10,000.
4. SOL has already seen explosive growth. ETH has not yet.
5. From a trend perspective, BTC rises first, followed by ETH. Currently, this is correct.
6. Today, driven by the election event, ETH's increase is already comparable to BTC's.
Core judgment:
1. ETH currently has a public chain ecosystem with the largest consensus and security, and it has adopted a long-term expansion plan.
2. Solana's expansion plan has short-term explosive potential. Its meme ecosystem is also similar, with short-term explosive potential. However, its long-term planning is not as far-sighted as ETH's.
3. In the last bull market, BTC took the lead. In this round, ETH has indeed not performed strongly and has delayed. But at this stage, it is far from sufficient to determine that ETH has already declined.
4. POS does concentrate chips more than POW. But this issue is not obvious in this cycle.
5. In the second half of this bull market, the ETH ecosystem may still form a positive spiral through RWA and ETFs, both internally and externally. RWA could be the biggest narrative, and ETH is leading.
6. The meme advantage of the Solana ecosystem may also be gradually eroded.
7. ETH's moat is still much deeper than SOL's.
8. ETH has just defeated the most troublesome internal adversary, the three-party DA. Solana, as a so-called ETH killer, is actually an old opponent from the last round.
9. Currently, SOL's market cap is still more than 25% of ETH's, which is already a historical peak. Compared to ETH's market cap, the room for increase is already limited.
10. At the current time point, betting on the public chain layer still needs to be mainly on ETH, with SOL as a smaller part.
What has been said above is crude and unsatisfactory. This is a caricature-style depiction with many imprecise parts.
Each detail could allow research institutions to write tens of thousands of words in reports, but it is not the format I prefer.
