If Trump is re-elected as U.S. president, his policy direction may involve the following aspects:
1. Foreign Policy:
Trump tends to avoid direct conflict with Russia, so he may ask NATO to reduce support for Ukraine. This could lead to a de-escalation of tensions between Ukraine and Russia through a ceasefire agreement similar to the Korean Peninsula model, but both sides may not sign a formal peace agreement in the short term.
2. China Policy:
In trade, military, and technology, Trump is expected to continue sanctions against China, particularly targeting China's semiconductor, new energy, and electric vehicle industries. These measures could severely impact China's foreign trade enterprises.
To reduce dependence on China, many Chinese factories supplying the U.S. may relocate to Southeast Asia or Mexico. Hong Kong's status as a financial center in Asia may be affected.
In response to external pressures, China may accelerate its transition to a consumption-driven economy, launching large-scale consumption stimulus plans to encourage trade-ins in the home appliance and automotive sectors.
3. Economic Policy:
Trump may continue to adjust tariff policies but will be more cautious to avoid exacerbating inflation. Tariff increases may be targeted rather than comprehensive.
To attract manufacturing back to the U.S., Trump may push for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a slow long-term depreciation of the dollar.
Domestically, Trump may continue to implement tax reduction policies to lessen the tax burden on businesses and individuals. Meanwhile, externally, he will continue to impose tariffs and restrict foreign immigration into the U.S., which may affect the U.S. labor market.
4. Technology and Military:
Trump will increase investment in high-tech fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and aerospace to maintain the U.S.'s leading position in global technological competition.
To support the development of these sectors, Trump may adopt a series of policy measures to promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading.
5. Middle East Policy:
Trump has a close relationship with the Jewish community and may increase support for Israel. After the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. may invest more resources in the Middle East to help Israel counter threats from adversaries like Iran. This could further complicate the situation in the Middle East.