Speaking to Cryptopolitan, Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, said the recent price surge likely reflects investor sentiment regarding future regulatory policies, legal clarity, and potential federal government adoption of Bitcoin.
“The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price, which has brought it very close to its all-time high, can be attributed to a combination of investor optimism about the election due to positive engagement from both campaigns and a significant inflow of capital into Bitcoin ETFs,” he said.
Throughout October, the 11 U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw consecutive inflows, reaching nearly $900 million on Oct. 30, the second-highest volume ever, according to Farside Investors. However, on Nov. 4, the day before Election Day, the ETFs recorded their second-highest day of outflows, $541.1 million. This represents the largest outflow since May 1, when $563.7 million was recorded.
Election with strong presence of cryptocurrencies fuels positive investor sentiment
Presidential candidates’ views on cryptocurrency regulation have become more prominent in the lead-up to the 2024 election. According to a survey released Oct. 17 by cryptocurrency advocacy group The Digital Chamber, around 26 million voters could be part of a “crypto voting bloc,” signaling a pro-crypto policy as a top requirement when deciding who to vote for.
One in seven of the 1,004 respondents said cryptocurrency was “extremely” or “very” important in deciding who they would vote for.
Klippsten says both candidates and their campaigns have discussed cryptocurrencies in some capacity, which is likely fueling investor optimism that when the dust settles, there could be a more crypto-friendly environment in the U.S.
“Donald Trump has taken a decidedly pro-Bitcoin stance, promising to turn the US into the world’s leading Bitcoin hub and even proposing the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve,” he said.
“Kamala Harris has taken a more measured approach, with many in the industry anticipating a period of regulatory clarity and support under her potential administration,” Klippsten added.
Former President Donald Trump has expressed support for the cryptocurrency industry, teasing in a speech in Nashville, Tennessee how he would make the US the "cryptocurrency capital of the planet" and Bitcoin a "world superpower."
Vice President Kamala Harris has yet to reveal an official position on cryptocurrencies, but in her 2024 policy platform, she refers to “digital currencies” and outlines plans to “encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets, while protecting our consumers and investors.”
Bitcoin's post-election price is likely tied to whoever wins
Greg Magadini, head of derivatives at Amberdata, told Cryptopolitan that depending on who wins the election, Bitcoin's price could see a spike in either direction, "with a +1.5-Sigma, $6,000-$8,000 price range, as a result of the post-election price reaction."
“So the key price levels are $60,000, down in Kamala’s win, or $75,000/$77,000 in case of Trump win, which brings the spot back to all-time highs and then the exceeds, as electoral enthusiasm breaks the high seen last week,” he said.
Bitcoin is up approximately 9.46% in the past 24 hours, reaching an all-time high of $75,011 as vote counting progresses, with Donald Trump taking an early lead in the polls. At the time of writing, Trump has won 95 of the 135 electoral votes counted so far.
