Today, the crypto market experienced a rebound, with Bitcoin returning to $71,000, and altcoins generally following the market trend with an overall increase of about 10%.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is less influenced by market data and more related to whether Trump is elected.
The significant rise in Bitcoin's price after today's opening is due to market expectations that Trump will be elected.
As of the time of writing, the voting results of the U.S. election show that Trump is leading Harris 177 to 99. Next, we just have to wait and see the final result.
So who would be more favorable for the crypto market, Trump or Harris?
I believe that if Trump takes office, it may be more favorable for the crypto market because he tends to deregulate. Harris may adopt stricter regulatory measures.
In the short term, if Trump wins, the crypto market may rise quickly, but the sustainability may not be long, as such emotion-driven increases usually come quickly and go quickly.
Moreover, short-term good news being realized can be bad news, so one should be aware of the risk of pullbacks.
If Harris wins, there may be a pullback in the crypto market, but the extent may not be significant, as the market will not allow cheap chips to be easily picked up.
The market has already priced in Trump's victory. This may hit Bitcoin bulls, and investors may stop-loss and exit.
Trump's and Harris's policy proposals are completely different.
Trump tends to favor tax cuts and deregulation, which may attract a large influx of capital, boosting the crypto market, especially in terms of market sentiment and speculative trading.
This is good news for large U.S. institutions and DeFi projects on Ethereum, such as AAVE, UNI, and MAKER, which may attract investments from large funds.
Harris's policies may be unfavorable for the crypto market in the short term, but in the long run, they may be beneficial.
She tends to strengthen regulation and raise taxes, which may temporarily limit market development.
The SEC is expected to continue strict crypto policies, and many projects may be defined as securities.
However, in the long run, focusing on social welfare spending and economic stability may provide indirect support for the crypto market.
In simple terms, Trump's election may lead to a short-term increase in Bitcoin's price, while Harris's election may lead to a short-term decrease.
Can Bitcoin become a strategic reserve asset for the U.S. after Trump takes office?
I think it's a bit difficult in the short term.
Although the U.S. president's policies can indeed have some impact on the market, the United States is a country with a system of checks and balances, and the president's power is actually limited.
Simply put, this matter is not solely decided by Trump.
The United States has a system of checks and balances; the president's power is limited and cannot unilaterally decide on major policies like incorporating Bitcoin into national strategic reserves.
So even if Trump says he will strongly support cryptocurrency, his actual influence is limited.
For example, the current president Biden has always wanted to ban TikTok, but even if he is the president, he cannot make this decision unilaterally, as it involves the dynamics between multiple departments and power agencies.
Besides the presidential election, what else should we pay attention to in the U.S. elections?
In addition to the presidential election, congressional elections are also very important.
Congress consists of the Senate and the House of Representatives.
The Senate has 100 seats, with one-third up for re-election every two years. This year, 34 seats are up for re-election, which will affect control of the Senate.
The House of Representatives has 435 seats, all of which are up for re-election every two years.
Congress is the legislative body of the United States, and all federal laws need to be passed by both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Which party holds the majority directly affects whether bills can be passed smoothly.
Congress is also responsible for overseeing the president and the executive branch, such as budget approvals and policy implementations.
If the president and Congress are controlled by different parties, it will create stronger checks and balances.
If Trump wins the election and the Republican Party holds the majority in Congress, he will have greater power to implement and promote his policies.
Overall, the market currently expects Trump to be elected, which has led to a significant rise in Bitcoin's price.
From the voting data, Trump currently has a slightly better chance of winning. If Trump takes office, it may further boost market sentiment, and Bitcoin's price may rise further.
But also pay attention to risks; do not go all in, as short-term good news being realized can be bad news, and one should be aware of the risk of pullbacks.
In terms of operational strategy, 70% of the long-term positions can hold coins and wait for a rise, while 10% of the positions can follow market sentiment for high selling and low buying. At this time, one should not be fully invested and should leave 20% of the positions to deal with potential black swan events.
