Since the cryptocurrency market entered a bear market in 2022, it has become a distant memory for many. In late October, Bitcoin made a comeback at a price of $73,500, with an increase of over 63% so far this year.
The last round of UST de-pegging led to the collapse of Luna, a token with a market value of over $40 billion, going to zero in just a few days!!!
How much of the assets from the FTX exchange liquidation are still at zero value now?
The bankruptcies of First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, etc., are memories of the bear market and the bitter fruits brought by interest rate hikes.
Now that the BTC halving has passed six months, combined with the Fed's interest rate cuts starting, and with Trump, who is favored by the cryptocurrency community, likely to be elected, I can expect to sell my BTC for over $250,000.
According to CCTV news, November 5 is the official voting day for the U.S. presidential election. Shortly after midnight on November 5, Eastern Time, voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, were the first to start voting, marking the official start of the 60th U.S. presidential election voting.
On that day, the vast majority of polling stations across the U.S. opened in the morning and continued to be open until the evening of the 5th. According to data from the University of Florida election lab, by the morning of November 4, local time, over 78.02 million voters had already voted early across the U.S.
The candidates for the U.S. presidential election are the Democratic candidate, current Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump. U.S. media generally believe that the 2024 election is the most closely contested presidential election in recent years.
What benefits does Trump's election as the new president bring to Bitcoin?
Why do people in the cryptocurrency space particularly hope for Trump's election as president?
First, Trump's team supports tax cuts for large corporations and the wealthy. Just like when he was elected last time, taxes were reduced from 35% to the current 21%. This time, Trump's team aims to cut it down to 15%. On the other hand, Harris's team supports tax cuts for small businesses while continuing to raise taxes on medium and large enterprises, increasing the tax rate to 28%. Therefore, in this regard, Harris's team is not friendly to the wealthy. Instead, Trump's team policies are more favorable to the cryptocurrency space and the wealthy.
Secondly, tax cuts will direct more funds into the capital markets. After taxes, the profits of businesses and wealthy individuals will increase, allowing more funds to flow into the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
Thirdly, tax cuts will increase the size of U.S. national debt. After tax cuts, government spending will only continue to increase, not decrease, leading to an expansion of U.S. national debt. A larger national debt is more favorable for the cryptocurrency space. For example: with the current scale of $35 trillion, when the national debt reaches $100 trillion by 2030, the U.S. stock market alone will not be able to accommodate such a large volume, and cryptocurrency will be needed to bear it. Just think about how high the price of BTC will be at that time.
There is a risk of a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market around three months after interest rate cuts.
Will Bitcoin follow suit?
My answer is: Looking at the data in the above chart, you will see that the probability is very small, and the probability of a significant rise is very high. Over the past decade, during the Fed's major interest rate cut cycles, the overall trend of the U.S. stock market has been upward. And is there a risk of a sharp decline for Bitcoin around three months after the interest rate cuts? The reasons for the rate cuts, economic cycles, market expectations, and the global economic environment, etc. Based on historical data analysis, interest rate cuts do not always lead to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks.
The background and purpose of interest rate cuts: Interest rate cuts are typically implemented when the economy is slowing down or facing the risk of recession, aimed at stimulating economic growth and consumption by lowering borrowing costs. In this context, interest rate cuts may have a positive impact on the stock market, as lower rates reduce the financing costs for companies, stimulating investment and consumption.
Market expectations: Market expectations are also an important factor affecting stock market performance. If the market generally believes that interest rate cuts are meant to address current economic issues, then the cuts may be interpreted as a sign that the economy is still healthy, thus having a positive impact on the stock market.
Global economic environment: The performance of the U.S. stock market is also influenced by the global economic environment. In a scenario where the global economy performs well overall, interest rate cuts may be seen as a signal to support the domestic economy, which would be beneficial for the stock market.
In summary: Trump's election as the new president would definitely be a positive for cryptocurrency. This round of the Bitcoin bull market could be quite crazy, but Harris's election would not affect the Bitcoin bull market; however, the overall volume of funds might be significantly impacted, and the peak of BTC might not be as high.
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Key point: On what basis do institutions predict that BTC prices will break through $1 million USDT each in the future?
1. In the village - real estate, big A is no longer viable; we have earned enough $30 million, what should we invest in?
2. Bro, if you're hesitating to buy BTC, then please stay away from the cryptocurrency space!
3. In this bull market, I only want to earn a tenfold return; how should I operate? Let me teach you!
4. Are you lacking opportunities to make money in the cryptocurrency space? No, absolutely not! What you lack is an excellent guide.
5. What has been the trend of BTC before and after the Fed's interest rate cuts over the past ten years? [The net inflow of over $11 billion USDT in the past month is bottom-fishing?]
6. With the dual benefits of the election and interest rate cuts, will BTC see above $80,000 USDT in November?
7. The global financial black swan, with over 320,000 liquidations in the cryptocurrency space today and a liquidation scale exceeding $1.2 billion USDT!
8. The development history and future outlook of the world's largest public chain - Ethereum [ETH] over the past decade.
9. The next best asset for global circulation - BTC
10. Which public chain is the future performance king?
