Bitcoin, known for its volatility and being an asset sensitive to economic and political events, has been on the radar of many investors, especially as the 2024 U.S. presidential elections approach.
The last few weeks have shown an intense rally, with a new ATH (All Time High), with BTC's value reaching the unprecedented range of 71 thousand dollars. We are currently in the range of 69 thousand dollars, with investors awaiting new news and the development of the American elections.
In an electoral scenario that promises to bring significant changes to the financial market, the outcome of the dispute between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could have a direct impact on Bitcoin's price. But where should it move in each scenario? Let's explore the predictions and possible consequences of this important political event.
The context: Why are the elections important for Bitcoin?
The cryptocurrency market is not isolated; it reacts strongly to economic and political movements, especially when they involve the world's largest economy, the United States. In recent years, economic policies that encourage dollar devaluation, increased regulation, and even the inclusion of Bitcoin in some strategic reserves have become hot topics among candidates.
While Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have divergent views on how to handle the cryptocurrency market, the victory of either could offer a new direction for Bitcoin, either as a store of value or as a regulated asset class.
1. A victory for Trump and the potential effect on Bitcoin
Donald Trump's campaign, which has recently aligned more with the crypto sector, promises a bolder approach.
Trump has shown support for developing a strategic reserve of Bitcoin in the U.S. that, if implemented, could create a foundation of institutional demand and even a form of legitimization of the digital asset. Furthermore, this initiative would reinforce Bitcoin's image as a store of value, which tends to exert positive pressure on prices.
Other key points that could affect Bitcoin's price if Trump wins include:
Institutional adoption: With a strategic reserve proposal, Bitcoin could see a new wave of institutional adoption, encouraging the purchase of the asset by large funds and investors.
Less regulatory control: Trump's vision tends to be more focused on deregulation, which could give more freedom to the crypto market, increasing liquidity and Bitcoin's value in the short and medium term.
Considering these factors, analysts believe that a Trump victory could push Bitcoin's price to new highs, with expectations of appreciation of up to 20% in the months following the announcement of a strategic reserve project in Bitcoin. This measure would be seen as a modern 'gold rush' and attract new investors to the market.
2. A victory for Kamala Harris and the path to regulation
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has a more regulatory stance towards the cryptocurrency market. The current vice president and her campaign are aligned with the regulations already pushed by the Biden administration to bring more security to the market.
If elected, Harris could continue financial regulations to ensure that Bitcoin and other digital assets have greater oversight, which includes combating potential fraud and money laundering. This brings advantages and disadvantages to Bitcoin:
Investor confidence: Greater regulation may alienate those seeking Bitcoin as a completely independent asset, but it also attracts traditional investors who see regulation as security to enter the market.
Price stability: Regulation tends to stabilize the market, which is good for those seeking less volatility in Bitcoin, but it reduces the potential for price explosions in the short term.
In this scenario, Bitcoin's price could go through a more gradual appreciation phase, with more stable growth. The expectation is that Bitcoin will reach a more predictable value throughout 2025, depending on the regulations implemented, but sharper fluctuations would be less present.
3. Short-term impacts: Where could Bitcoin move?
Regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin is expected to react with volatility in the short term. A Trump victory could mean a jump in Bitcoin's price, and investors anticipate an increase in demand for digital assets as a store of value strategy. However, this increase could be temporary, as the market would still need concrete actions from the government to sustain long-term appreciation.
With Harris, the initial expectation may be a slight drop in price, especially among investors who fear stricter regulation. However, in the medium and long term, the market could strengthen as strict regulations create a more trustworthy environment for traditional investors.
4. Analyst opinions: price forecast for each scenario
Market experts have pointed out that, in the event of a Trump victory, Bitcoin could reach new highs in 2025, reaching levels close to 70,000 and 100,000 dollars, depending on the economic policies implemented.
With Harris, the scenario suggests a slower but still optimistic evolution, with projections between 55,000 and 70,000 dollars, driven by regulatory security and investor confidence.
Conclusion: Regardless of who wins, Bitcoin is in the spotlight
Ultimately, the 2024 U.S. elections bring different expectations for the cryptocurrency market, but both suggest a promising future for Bitcoin.
With Trump, the asset could appreciate rapidly due to possible deregulation and strategic reserve of Bitcoin in the U.S. With Harris, the market may strengthen gradually, but with more security.
For Bitcoin investors, the advice is to pay attention to the early statements of the elected president, as decisions made in the first months of government will play a decisive role in Bitcoin's price in 2025. Whatever the outcome, it is certain that the current scenario has placed Bitcoin on the U.S. political agenda, making it an asset class that will not be ignored in the short term.
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Photo by val-suprunovich, available on Freepik
