In the final moments of the election campaign, Trump's chances of winning are 55%. In the face of the possibility that the Trump team might announce victory ahead of time, Harris and the Democrats have prepared for the worst. Various signs indicate that regardless of which presidential candidate enters the White House, Europe is likely to become the final 'loser' of this U.S. election. So, what is the current situation of the U.S. election? Why is it said that no matter who comes to power, Europe will be the loser? With only 48 hours left until the U.S. election voting day, the support rates between Democratic presidential candidate Harris and Republican presidential candidate Trump remain neck and neck. However, the overall trend in recent days shows that the Republican Party seems to be gaining the upper hand—data from a U.S. betting website shows that Trump's betting odds are 55%, leading Harris by 6 percentage points. Looking back at the trend of betting odds for the two parties' presidential candidates since the first televised debate, it can be seen that Trump's chances have gradually increased. Some analysts believe that the reason Trump is able to 'turn the tables' at the last moment of the election campaign and even gain a clear advantage on major betting platforms is likely due to the capital markets having more confidence in his performance on economic issues, while Harris has been 'held back' by Biden. Data shows that due to the performance of the Biden administration over the past four years, which has caused irreversible impacts on the economy and situation both in the U.S. and globally, many Americans have doubts about Harris. For this group of people, the ever-increasing federal budget deficit, persistently high inflation, and the current situation of global unrest and war all prove that the Biden administration is 'unreliable'. At this moment, if Harris cannot present convincing achievements to prove her own capability, then Trump will easily gain more support from voters. It is worth mentioning that in addition to 'digging pits' for Harris on domestic and foreign issues, some 'mistakes' made by Biden during the campaign have also provided Trump with 'assistance'. For example, recently, Biden criticized Trump's supporters as 'trash' in a speech, which the Republican Party viewed as the latest evidence of the Democrats' 'political persecution' of Trump. Faced with continuously declining poll support and a 'dragging' old boss, Harris's situation can almost be described as grim. In media interviews, Harris candidly stated that the Democrats have made preparations for the 'worst'—if Trump announces victory ahead of time and manipulates the media or compromises the 'consensus' of the American people, then the Democrats will respond immediately. Given that in the 2020 election, Trump had a history of quickly announcing victory on election night, followed by the shocking 'Capitol Hill incident', it is understandable that Harris and her campaign team have this concern. After all, Trump has publicly stated that he will only accept the election results if he deems them 'free and fair'. Compared to Harris's worries about Trump 'causing trouble' on election night, European countries have significantly more concerns. Recently, the European edition of the U.S. 'Politico' website published an article stating that over the past 30 years, U.S. interest in Europe has been declining. Regardless of which presidential candidate wins, it is unlikely that the U.S. will restore 'prosperous transatlantic relations'; 'Europe has become the loser'. The article mentioned that the EU does not want Trump to return to the White House because he threatens to impose tariffs on European goods and aims to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict immediately after the election. However, the Harris they have high hopes for may also prioritize the country's interests in the 'Indo-Pacific region' over the situation of European allies. Currently, EU countries are already contemplating the possibility of the U.S. withdrawing from Europe. From the current situation, Europe becoming the biggest 'loser' behind the 2024 U.S. election seems almost certain. The only difference is that Trump's victory would make the situation of European allies more difficult, forcing countries to pay a higher price to manage U.S.-EU relations; while a Harris victory might continue Biden's diplomatic strategy, distancing itself from Europe in a relatively 'mild' manner.
