Today is November 5, 2024, Tuesday, and tomorrow is the decisive moment of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, expected to reveal results in the afternoon. Historically, every time the U.S. election results are finalized, the market has surged. I believe this election will also be one of the crucial nodes in the fourth wave of the bull market in the cryptocurrency space. History cannot be altered; will the trend continue or restart? Currently, presidential candidate Trump has a strong voice and is significantly ahead of Harris in support.
Regarding who will be elected, I personally believe Trump has a higher probability. Not only does he support cryptocurrencies and embrace new things, but his fighting spirit at the age of 78 is also commendable. However, everyone should know that U.S. elections are like rolling dice, with huge uncertainty. Anything can happen before the results are announced, but one thing is certain: regardless of who becomes president, the bull market cycle will continue.
With the Bitcoin halving this year, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the start of the interest rate cut cycle, and significant capital movements, more and more countries, institutions, and participants are getting involved globally. The bull market will surely come; it’s just that the market has become more complex. What has changed are these external appearances; the essence has never changed.
I personally believe that if Trump is elected, the market will likely rise directly. If not, the market is expected to continue fluctuating for a few more days. After the fluctuations, Bitcoin will still reach new highs, just possibly at a slower pace. In the long run, regardless of who is elected, whether negative or positive, it will only affect the short-term market fluctuations but cannot prevent the arrival of the next bull market!
In terms of market conditions, before the election results are announced, the cryptocurrency market, as a risk asset, saw a crazy outflow due to ETF hedging yesterday, resulting in altcoins hitting new lows daily. Personally, I have completely understood the importance of allocating Bitcoin in the early stages of a bull market during this round of market conditions. Most other altcoins are just running alongside; after the short-term rise, it’s all chaos. Currently, most altcoins are quite cold, and over the past few months, many have dropped by 70-80%, with some even falling by more than 90%. As for whether altcoins can return to their previous highs, I personally believe that 60-70% might, while some will not return.
Compared to the goodwill of market makers to help retail investors, they are more willing to hype new hot spots. Once that hot spot is over, it’s basically a one-time flow. The future trend will involve funds continuously rotating and then returning to the mainstream sectors, followed by ongoing rotation. During this period, some strong sectors, such as the MEME sector, will span the entire cycle, growing with the cycle and reaching new highs, while weaker sectors will fluctuate and complete accumulation, only to explode in the last few days. Remember, the first factor of trend reversal is that the VC coin sector follows suit; often, a significant rise in a certain VC coin indicates that the trend has arrived.
Currently, the market is down, and some altcoins have already started to decouple from the decline. The on-chain situation is also beginning to cool down, and funds are flowing back, which is a good thing. Let's wait for the election to finish, and good things will come in pairs.
Additionally, the market cap share of Bitcoin is also one of the key indicators to watch during a bear market. It is currently near the descending trend line, indicating that altcoins may soon welcome a wave of recovery, possibly after Bitcoin breaks through its historical highs. Historically, after Bitcoin breaks its historical highs, it tends to continue climbing for a while, while altcoins generally remain in low-level fluctuations. After about half a month, Ethereum will start to take over, and Bitcoin's market share will begin to decline, leading to a recovery in altcoins.
Today's article ends here. See you next time!
Investing carries risks; the above content is personal sharing and does not constitute investment advice!
