The most exciting part is coming
1. The election starts tonight at 7 PM
2. At 12 PM on November 6, the results of the U.S. election will be announced
3. At 2 PM on November 8, the interest rate meeting will announce a rate cut.
The most volatile days are coming!
As we wait for the results of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday and Wednesday, the market will continue to fluctuate. In the short term, the election will completely determine the price trend. However, once the situation stabilizes, if the previous voting patterns are repeated, Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a significant rebound.
Bitcoin was created in 2009 and is about to go through its fourth U.S. election. The data from the first three elections shows that the largest cryptocurrency always rises afterward and never falls back to the price on election day. If this trend occurs again, the BTC price should peak in about a year.
2012
In the U.S. election held on November 5, 2012, Bitcoin hovered around $11. The peak of the cycle occurred in November 2013, when the price soared nearly 12,000%, pushing Bitcoin above $1,100.
2016
Fast forward four years. In the first week of November, the price of Bitcoin was around $700. It peaked at around $18,000 in December 2017, appreciating approximately 3,600%.
2020
After the most recent vote, the election in November 2020 coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic, Bitcoin rose 478% a year later, reaching a market top of about $69,000.
After each event, the jump in Bitcoin's price has decreased significantly compared to four years ago, with diminishing returns. The percentage decrease between the first and second numbers is 70%. Between the second and third, it is 87%.
If we extend the trend and assume this time the drop will be around 90%, it would mean a post-election rebound of about 47.8%. This would bring Bitcoin to approximately $103,500 in Q4 2025.
