After multiple attempts to break through the $70,000 resistance level, Bitcoin has once again fallen below this level. This highlights the potential challenges of maintaining upward momentum on the charts.
At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at $68,581, having seen a slight increase of 0.3% in the past 24 hours. This suggests that additional market strength may be required to solidify a long-term trend above $70,000.
In response to the recent price movements of cryptocurrencies, CryptoQuant analyst CoinLupin shared insights on Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) cycle. According to this analyst,
"As we approach key events in November, the MVRV ratio provides a traditional analytical method to assess Bitcoin's value amidst broader market factors."
As of the time of writing, the MVRV ratio is around 2, indicating that Bitcoin's market value is twice its on-chain value estimate. CoinLupin does not focus solely on the current value of MVRV, but emphasizes this trend by using tools such as the 365-day Bollinger Bands and four-year averages to better understand Bitcoin's cycles.
At the time of writing, the MVRV ratio is above this year's average level—indicating that while Bitcoin's trend continues to move north, there is still potential for higher cyclical peaks.
Long-term price indicators and future targets
According to analysts, as of the time of writing, MVRV levels indicate a sustained upward trend, but have not yet reached historical highs. MVRV levels typically range between 3 and 3.6.
Assuming realized value stabilizes, analysts estimate that BTC needs to rise by 43-77% to reach a target price between $95,000 and $120,000.
He also noted that rising market interest and buying momentum could drive actual value higher—indicating that future peaks may exceed these levels based on previous cycles.
In addition to MVRV, CoinLupin also emphasized that Bitcoin has seen significant increases over the past year. However, it has only recently approached the average level of the MVRV metric, maintaining positive momentum.
Research on key indicators and market interest in Bitcoin
By closely observing Bitcoin's on-chain metrics, further insights into Bitcoin's ongoing performance can be gained. For example, retail interest represented by Glassnode's active address data has remained relatively stable since August.
Despite the recent volatility in Bitcoin's price, the number of active addresses has remained within a certain range. In recent months, the number of active addresses has fluctuated between 870,000 and 546,000.
This stable activity may suggest that while there is interest in BTC, new retail participation may be limited. The lack of strong directional movement in active addresses may indicate that while existing users are still engaged, there has not yet been a surge of new participants. This could be necessary for BTC to establish a more solid upward trajectory.
In addition, examining whale transactions (a key indicator of large holder behavior) can provide another perspective on Bitcoin's potential.
Data from IntoTheBlock shows that Bitcoin whale transaction volume recently peaked at 24,070 on October 29, then decreased to 13,300 on November 3.
The decrease in large transactions indicates a temporary reduction in whale activity, which may affect Bitcoin's short-term momentum. The drop in whale transactions may suggest that large holders have temporarily halted buying or selling activities. This, in turn, could lead to a cooling of Bitcoin's price trend.
If whale activity increases again, it could provide new support for Bitcoin's price. This could potentially help the asset break through key resistance levels.
