With the election approaching, Bitcoin might experience sharp fluctuations both up and down. For contracts, I must have a confidence level or risk-reward ratio of 70% or more to open them, but the election result is really a gamble, a 55-45 scenario, with no extra profit. If you place the wrong bet, you go to zero, and the subsequent bull market has nothing to do with you. Therefore, I do not like to open positions with a risk-reward ratio or winning rate below 70%, so these days, I'm holding back and waiting for a result.

Currently, the information suggests that the K-line patterns and news-related confusion are quite strong. Be aware that U.S. stocks now open at 22:30 Beijing time and close at 5:00. According to Polymarket, Trump's winning probability has dropped to 54.5%, and there is selling pressure; U.S. media exposed wash trading leading to BTC's fall from a high position, making recent trends very difficult to determine.

Pay attention to two time points: the counting of votes for the presidential election starts on November 5, and the announcement time may be delayed; I personally feel the results will come out on the 6th. On November 8, there is a rate cut point. The good news is that currently, Trump is leading in 4 out of 6 states with more than 15% of the votes ahead, haha sister, the visible winning rate is much higher.

The liquidation chart also shows that there is space for both long and short liquidations. A 10% increase could liquidate 1.6 billion in shorts, and a 10% drop could liquidate 34% in longs. We are currently in a typical washout phase, and significant volatility is expected on the announcement day, so be cautious of risks.

There isn't much to see on the technical side. Although the daily chart has shown six consecutive declines, as long as the drop is not deep, it can be treated as a correction. It is inherently at a high position, and a washout phase is essential for continued good upward movement.

Currently, Bitcoin is at the most crucial time node in history from both technical and informational perspectives. The market conditions of these few days will have a decisive impact on the future short-term trends, so everyone must closely monitor the market movements during these days.

Bitcoin is testing the top of a bull flag again. If a rebound forms here, do not chase long positions, as it cannot hold here and will come down again. We will participate in long positions when a rebound signal appears in the lower purple support area.

Trading thought:

A reversal signal is forming around 66,000; enter to go long.

Friendly reminder:

The announcement time for the U.S. election results will start to be released on the evening of November 5, Eastern Time in the U.S., which is from the morning to noon of November 6 in Beijing time.

Before the election results are announced, it is advised to observe in the medium to long term, and all intraday short-term trades must have good stop-loss protection!

Please remember:

The tricks of capital games are never constant; they can imitate the past or create extreme contrasts.

The capital market is always a powerful wolf pack watching over the weak sheep, and they generally do not miss their targets.

Retail investors find it hard to make money, but retail investors can make money. You need to possess strong skills, an insightful perspective, and keen judgment...

The K-line can continue its relentless march, but you must take breaks.

To enter the game, you must be able to control yourself.

Opportunities and risks coexist; learn to make choices.

If you really think you are a trading loser, then please leave the market.

If your potential kingly awareness is slowly awakening, then please seriously grasp this process of rising.