The market should remain cautious amid the short-term uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election. Currently, the cryptocurrency market is dominated by wait-and-see risk aversion.
This week is the U.S. election week. There is great uncertainty about the U.S. election now. Trump has been vocal in the past month, but Harris’s winning rate is gradually increasing during the election process. The U.S. election has a major impact on the entire market. There will be an interest rate meeting on Friday, and the market generally believes that interest rates will be cut by 25 basis points. Currently, the cryptocurrency market is mainly on the sidelines and hedging. This week’s option IV has risen to 80%, and this month’s option IV is significantly higher than Forward options, there may be big moves in the next few days.
The main goal of retail investors during the U.S. election should be to establish situational awareness and avoid overconfidence in the election results and market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting expectations. The current market-implied probability of a Republican victory has increased, which some people expect , which will produce a clear outcome on Election Day night, neither candidate appears to be the clear favorite to win the Electoral College, so a repeat of the long vote count seen in 2020 is likely, given the track record of early voting data Not good. I personally don’t attach much importance to these data. It is recommended not to over-interpret the market’s short-term trends. The market’s short-term response to elections is often noisy and may not predict the medium-term trend.
Finally, for the general decline of mainstream currencies in the short-term market, I personally think that you can just wait and see how it changes and hold your position without moving. Remember, this is the beginning of the bull market, and you can only benefit from the subsequent launch of the big market if you hold on to your chips.