Recently, there has been an overwhelming amount of negative news; Bitcoin has dropped from $73,620 on October 30 to a low of $66,835 today, plummeting nearly 10% in four days.
What exactly is falling from the sky—flying knives or pies? Should we accept this price or not? How should we respond?
Let's first look at the news.
1. Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate "up and down" by at least 10% based on the results of the U.S. election.
Anonymous trader DaanCryptoTrades posted on X that Bitcoin's price could fluctuate by at least 10%, depending on which U.S. presidential candidate wins the election on November 5.
IGarkets analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in his investment report on November 4 that Bitcoin needs to "sustainably break" the resistance level of $74,000 to confirm an upward trend and may surge to $80,000.
Sycamore also warned that traders should act cautiously; a "sustained drop" below the support level of $65,000 for BTC would indicate a failed rebound, which could return to a seven-month downward trend channel.
2. The probability of Harris winning the U.S. election is slightly ahead, Trump is in a precarious position; Buffett continues to reduce his holdings in Apple by 25%. Regardless of who is elected, tech stocks will burst, and Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway cash reserves have reached $300 billion.
Trump's situation seems grim! Investment tycoon Buffett has been selling off U.S. stocks, raising speculation that he may have foreseen some insider information.
If Trump really loses, U.S. policies are likely to undergo significant changes. There are rumors that Harris may take office, and she might increase taxes on the wealthy. Therefore, Buffett likely wants to sell off assets quickly before tax increases to reduce the amount of tax owed.
In fact, Buffett has consistently taken action, including continuously reducing his holdings in Apple by 25%. Regardless of who is elected, tech stocks will burst, and Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway cash reserves have reached $300 billion.
If heavyweight figures like Buffett start selling stocks, then other big bosses on Wall Street may also follow suit. This could lead to a situation where many people simultaneously sell stocks, causing a significant drop in the stock market, which would also impact the crypto market.
3. The political disputes arising from the election may lead to instability; wealthy Americans are beginning to plan their exit from the U.S.
According to ChainCatcher, the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel cites experts in the immigration field reporting that a record number of wealthy Americans plan to leave the U.S. indefinitely after the presidential election due to concerns about potential unrest.
Reports indicate that immigration lawyers have stated that more wealthy Americans plan to leave the U.S. as the election date approaches on November 5, with many concerned about potential political and social unrest regardless of who wins.
High-income household lawyers and consultants have found a record growth in demand from clients seeking a second passport or long-term residency abroad.
Regardless of who is elected, they believe there will be social unrest and increased risk of economic recession, and BTC may experience a monkey market.
4. The liquidation map shows that long positions are accumulating.
High-leverage long and short positions have been liquidated by as much as 65% in recent days, and it is expected that on election day, liquidations will occur between $67,500 and $72,500 at 25 times leverage.
Risk and high returns coexist, but this market is too crazy; retaining principal allows for opportunities at any time, so be cautious about the ups and downs.
However, there are also some relatively certain good news.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is 98.9%.
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting by 25 basis points in November is 98.%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 1.1%. The probability of maintaining the current rate in December is 0.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 17.1% and a 50 basis point cut at 82.7%.
JPMorgan: No matter who wins, if gold prices pull back, that is a buying opportunity.
"It's hard to be pessimistic about gold." Ahead of the U.S. election, JPMorgan's latest research report made this judgment. The report stated: "No matter who wins, if gold prices pull back, it will be a good buying opportunity."
Currently, gold trading is very active. If the election results are unexpected in the short term, the market may experience volatility. However, JPMorgan believes that in the long run, gold will still benefit from the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, purchases by central banks, and the global trend of currency devaluation.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is recognized as digital gold; the liquidity from rate cuts will certainly find its way into gold and subsequently into Bitcoin. In other words, if Bitcoin pulls back, that is a buying opportunity.
News can be fabricated and exaggerated; data is the only truth.
Let's take a look at a set of data.
1. BlackRock currently holds 433,700 Bitcoin.
This week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of $2.2202 billion. According to Farside Investors data, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a cumulative net inflow of $2.2202 billion this week, which includes: BlackRock IBIT: inflow of $2.1489 billion; Fidelity FBTC: inflow of $89.8 million.
BlackRock's official update on spot Bitcoin ETF holdings shows that as of November 4, BlackRock's IBIT holds 433,713.21 Bitcoin, exceeding 2% of Bitcoin's total supply, with a market value of over $29.9 billion.
2. Over 1,000 BTC flowed into exchange wallets in the past 24 hours.
According to the latest data, in the past 24 hours, 1,044.53 BTC flowed into exchange wallets, and in the past 7 days, 3,265.29 BTC flowed out of exchange wallets. In the last 30 days, 47,806.57 BTC flowed out of exchange wallets. As of the time of publication, the total balance of exchange wallets is 2,388,421.53 BTC.
Inflows are generally associated with selling pressure; based on the data, the short-term outlook is bearish, but the long-term outlook remains positive, with many long-held BTC being sent to cold wallets, indicating confidence in the future market.
3. Bitcoin's 200-day dollar-cost average.
Currently, the 200-day dollar-cost average is about $63,359.
We know that dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin can generally outperform most traders; therefore, the current market price is slightly above the 200-day dollar-cost average, which means that buying at this price is still very cost-effective, considering that others have been buying for 200 days to average their cost to $63,359.
This means that the coin price is not expensive; buying coins at this time is not much different from the cost of those who are dollar-cost averaging.
4. AHR999 index
The Bitcoin AHR999 accumulation index is currently at 0.77.
By analyzing the Bitcoin AHR999 index, we found that the ahr999 index is below 0.45 only 8.5% of the time, which is the bottom-buying range, a rare opportunity.
For 46.3% of the time, the ahr999 index is between 0.45 and 1.2, which is the dollar-cost averaging range, meaning that the period between 0.45-1.2 is when we can increase our holdings, and below 0.45 is when we can go all in.
Historically, these two data points are very worth referencing.
You see, ETFs are continuously buying, and long-held BTC is still flowing out of exchanges; continuous interest rate cuts, the 200-day dollar-cost average, and the ahr999 index all point to the fact that the chips are cheap now, and the future market is promising.
About the market situation
The recent pullback may be one of the best buying opportunities before a potential crazy bull market kicks off.
In the short term, the price movement of Bitcoin has completely overlapped with Trump's election winning odds; as Trump's odds rise in the prediction market, Bitcoin gradually declines. If Trump loses the election, the downward trend of Bitcoin will persist in the short term, but due to the market's prior digestion of negative effects, Harris's victory may have a reduced impact on Bitcoin's price.
Conversely, if Trump ultimately wins the election, then the pre-election decline presents the best "short-term entry" and opportunity to go long.
However, we should pay more attention to one month from now, three months from now, and six months from now.
In the medium to long term, I have said that Bitcoin below $73,000 will be the best range for everyone to grab, and the main players will try to wash out and deeply wash below $73,000 as much as possible; only in this way can they maximize the collection of cheap chips.
We must firmly stick to our strategy and not change due to short-term FUD sentiment; try to fill our positions below $73,000 as much as possible, which is equivalent to sowing the seeds. After that, we don't need to do anything in our operations, just wait for the flowers to bloom and the harvest in the autumn.
We must always look towards the finish line, letting the process take its course; ups and downs are normal. As long as we have chips, we must persist until the end, and only when we stand up after getting off the bus is true victory.
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