#BabyMarvin f9c7 The latest polls show that Harris and Trump are evenly matched!
Recently, global investors have been waiting for the results of the US election. A series of polls released last Sunday showed that Harris and Trump are still evenly matched, with very little gap in support between the two sides, both nationwide and in key swing states that could decide the outcome.
The last NBC poll before the US election showed that Harris and Trump's approval ratings were tied at 49%, while a survey by consulting firm Morning Consult showed Harris leading by 2 percentage points at 49% to 47%, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point.
Recently, Reuters reported that U.S. Democrats speculated that Trump might declare victory in advance in this year's election. Harris' campaign team said they are preparing a response strategy and will respond quickly to public opinion, calling on the public to remain calm and patient during the vote counting.
It is worth noting that David Kelly, global chief strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may suspend interest rate cuts from December.
Harris and Trump are evenly matched
Last Sunday, the last NBC poll before the US election showed that Harris and Trump's approval ratings were tied at 49%. 2% of voters said they were still unsure about their choice. In addition, two-thirds of voters believed that the United States was heading in the wrong direction. In addition, in a Yahoo News/YouGov survey, the approval ratings of both parties were evenly matched, with the results being 47%-47%.
And in a survey of likely voters conducted by consulting firm Morning Consult on Sunday, Harris led by two points, 49%-47%, with a margin of error of one percentage point. Harris' lead has tightened slightly since she was ahead by three points last week and by four points in two previous Morning Consultant polls.
Still, the final ABC News/Ipsos poll showed Harris leading nationally 49% to 46%, and a New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday showed her ahead in five of seven battleground states. A Des Moines Register poll showed Harris leading 47% to 44% in Iowa, a state Trump has won in every previous election, which may be an outlier but suggests Harris' efforts to win over white voters in the Midwest may be successful.
According to AFP on November 3, US presidential candidates Harris and Trump faced off in swing states in the United States on the 2nd. This is the last weekend of the most intense presidential campaign in modern America. A series of rallies in swing states will test their endurance and ability to persuade the country's last batch of undecided voters.
According to reports, both held rallies in North Carolina on the 2nd, and Harris will also hold rallies in Georgia and Michigan to further convey the message that Trump is a threat to American democracy. Trump will also travel to Virginia, Georgia and Pennsylvania. He promised to carry out a thorough right-wing transformation of the government and launch an aggressive trade war to promote his "America First" policy.
In an interview with Fox News Channel on November 2, Trump criticized the economic situation under the Biden-Harris administration, calling the disappointing employment data released on the 1st a "gift to me."
The candidates' busy schedules will continue into Monday, culminating in late-night rallies - Trump in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and Harris in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Data from the Election Lab at the University of Florida show that as of the afternoon of November 3rd local time, more than 76.46 million voters across the United States have voted early for the 2024 presidential election. Among them, North Carolina's early voting rate hit a record high, with more than 4.2 million votes cast at on-site polling stations.
Recently, Reuters reported that the voting day for the 2024 US election is approaching, and US Democrats speculated that Trump may declare victory in this year's election in advance.
Harris' campaign team said they are preparing a response strategy and will quickly respond to public opinion, calling on the public to remain calm and patient during the vote count. Harris did not disclose what specific preparations she had made, but six Democratic officials and members of Harris' campaign team told the media on November 1 that the Democratic Party's initial response strategy will mainly be carried out in the public opinion field. They plan to respond as soon as possible, publicize it on social media and TV broadcasts, and call on the public to remain calm and patient during the vote count.
Among them, a senior official of the Democratic National Committee said: "If Trump falsely declares victory, we are ready to announce the truth on TV and use the influence of the general public to fight back."
A senior official from Harris's team also said in a conference call with reporters that they "fully expected" Trump to falsely claim victory before all the votes were counted. "He's done it before. If he does it again, he's going to lose," the official said.
JPMorgan Chase issues a "warning"
David Kelly, global chief strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, recently warned that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may suspend its easing cycle as early as December.
David Kelly pointed out that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. David Kelly said: "If the Republicans win a big victory in Trump's victory, you will get more expansionary fiscal policy, possibly a trade war, larger deficits, and thus higher interest rates." The impact of these policies will prompt the Federal Reserve to pause its rate cuts.
David Kelly also said that if Harris wins, the U.S. economy may continue its soft landing trajectory. "If you have a divided government, such as a Harris victory, then I think you will continue this slow, long-term soft landing economy, but a little dull." He said that in this case, the Federal Reserve may stick to its expected loose policy path.
While the Fed operates independently, David Kelly noted that the central bank still responds to politics because developments could foreshadow the direction of the economy. David Kelly said the Fed will almost certainly cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of its next meeting on November 7, and then pause its easing cycle as early as its December meeting.
Traders are currently discussing the possibilities, constantly checking the latest polls and election betting markets to predict whether Trump or Harris is leading and what that means for their trading positions. In certain markets, some are speculating that Wall Street is betting on Trump. However, when it comes to actually putting money into the stock market based on this, everyone is calm. Investment professionals know that trades that predict winners before the fact usually make huge profits. But the problem is that this election is too close, so for many investors, the risk will be unbearable if the expectations are not met.
“We don’t position for the election outcome because it’s a coin flip,” Eric Diton, president and managing director of Wealth Alliance, said in an interview. “There’s no point in betting.”
Most traders expect markets to be volatile this week, and the volatility could be significant, as a contested result could drag the counting of votes into weeks or even months. That explains why the CBOE Volatility Index has risen above 20 over the past four sessions, a level that typically indicates heightened stress in the stock market. It’s also why investors are less eager to make investment choices based on their expectations of the election results.
“The polls have been wildly wrong in the past,” said Dave Lutz, equity sales trader and macro strategist at JonesTrading in New York. “It’s not certain who will win or lose.”
“Investors need to watch election risk carefully,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, chief investment officer of global asset allocation at Northern Trust Asset Management. “Traders can’t even take positions at this point because it’s highly speculative and traders don’t know which policy proposals of either candidate will actually pass Congress.”
CICC analysts Liu Gang, Li Yujie and others pointed out in their latest research report that if the result is stronger than expected, that is, "a complete Republican victory" (President Trump + Republicans control both houses of the House and Senate), then the current "Trump deal" will still have a period of upward movement and amplitude, but will then enter a period of suspension waiting for the actual implementation of the policy, similar to the surge after the 2016 election and the gradual suspension after January 2017; if the result is lower than expected, that is, other situations except "a complete Republican victory", especially Harris winning the election, then it will directly lead to a direct reversal of all transactions.
Specifically, a "republican victory" will strengthen expectations for the advancement of Trump's policies, forcing some previously hesitant investors to quickly chase higher prices, which means that there is still some room for Trump's transactions as a whole, and assets that have not been factored into expectations will react more. 1) US stocks, US bonds, the US dollar and Bitcoin still have the possibility of rising in the short term, similar to Trump's transactions in 2016, but the rebound will be lower than the previous round. After a period of time, the transaction may be suspended or reversed. 2) On the contrary, copper, crude oil, and China's export chain have the risk of compensating for insufficient expectations.
Strong cyclical and resource-based risk assets such as copper and oil may rebound under the expectation of re-inflation; gold, which is based on uncertainty and risk aversion, may reverse; China's export chain may be marginally under pressure, and industries with low exports to the United States and high imports from China may have relative resilience. Other combinations except "Republican victory" may lead to a reversal of Trump's deal.
For example, Harris' victory will directly lead to a reversal of Trump's trades, such as the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields, gold may pull back, and US stocks may even face certain pressure, while other assets that have been damaged by Trump's policies will be relieved of pressure.
If Trump wins but the Democrats control the House of Representatives, the implementation of his incremental stimulus policies may be hindered, which will also cause a reversal of U.S. Treasury bond yields and the U.S. dollar. U.S. stocks will also be under pressure, but the export chain will still be under pressure, and gold will continue to trade on tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties.
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