We have finally entered the final moments of the uncertain 2024 U.S. election. Just one day before voting day, let's quickly review expert opinions and polls on the impact of the 'Trump vs. Harris contest' on cryptocurrency and the global economy.
Amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the BRICS countries' de-dollarization process, the 2024 U.S. election is highly anticipated. These geopolitical issues present global challenges, and American voters see the 'Trump vs. Harris showdown' as a significant turning point for freedom of speech, decentralization, and cryptocurrency regulation. Therefore, this week's election and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting have triggered significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping from $73,000 to as low as $68,000.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia: Harris's victory may lead to dollar depreciation
Not only is the cryptocurrency market volatile, but this election is also expected to affect the dollar's performance. The global economic and market research team at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) noted in a report that the dollar may experience significant fluctuations this week. If Trump gains an early advantage in the on-site vote counting, the dollar is expected to strengthen; however, if Harris wins, the dollar may depreciate by 1%-2% this week.
JPMorgan: Harris's victory may lead to an economic soft landing
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, holds an optimistic view of Harris's candidacy. Kelly pointed out that if Trump wins, his expansionary fiscal policies may boost inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts as early as December. Conversely, if Republicans achieve a sweeping victory, the U.S. may see more expansionary fiscal policies, potentially widening trade frictions and fiscal deficits, leading to rising interest rates. If Harris is elected, the U.S. economy is expected to continue on a path to a soft landing, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain an accommodative policy.
Poll: Intense Competition in Swing States
Expert opinions vary, and polls provide us with more information. According to a poll from big data company AtlasIntel, Trump is leading Harris in all seven swing states, particularly with a clear advantage in Arizona and Nevada. The data shows that key Rust Belt states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania remain highly competitive.
Additionally, a poll from Iowa shows Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%. Notably, a September poll in Iowa had shown Trump leading by 4 percentage points, and a June poll indicated he was 18 points ahead of Democratic candidate Biden. Finally, the latest poll from the New York Post shows both Trump and Harris with a support rate of 49%, with Harris's support declining by 2% compared to previous results.
Overall, the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has global implications, playing a crucial role in global markets, cryptocurrency regulation, and the future direction of U.S. economic policy. Despite conflicting expert opinions and poll results, the outcome of this election will undoubtedly have a profound impact on economic policies and market dynamics in the coming weeks.