Early Review: Bitcoin tested the key level of 68150 yesterday and recovered to around 69200 this morning. However, the downward test breaking the key level is a very bad signal, indicating that market sentiment lacks strong confidence in a significant rise later. This also involves the risk assessment of large whales and institutions making hedging decisions due to the potential for drastic fluctuations in the market.#美国大选后涨或跌？
Let’s focus on the US election starting tomorrow, and the shepherd will provide a brief analysis of the market outlook.
1. Election Results Announcement: The results of the election on November 5 are expected to be announced that evening. Reflecting on the last time Trump was elected, the market experienced drastic fluctuations, from limit up to limit down, with many people facing liquidation within a day.
2. Monetary Policy Meeting: The monetary policy meeting will be held from November 6 to 7. If the Federal Reserve chooses to cut interest rates, it may lead to a wave of increases; if not, it is likely to continue along the original trend. According to non-farm data, this meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point cut. However, if the election results are considered in conjunction with the monetary policy meeting, the market may experience significant volatility.
3. Bitcoin Market: The current structure of the Bitcoin market is clear; regardless of whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not affect the market structure. The focus of market makers is on market trends and maximizing their own interests, rather than the candidates themselves. Therefore, after the election results are announced at noon on the 6th, market volatility may be lower than expected, similar to the night of an interest rate cut or when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference.
4. Market Volatility Expectations: The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, the market may experience short-term fluctuations ("spikes"), but the overall market will continue to develop along the established route. The Bitcoin market has gone through a long period of decline, consolidation, and accumulation, and will not be disrupted by a single event.
5. The Role of the US Election: The US election provides market makers with opportunities to increase volatility and create market divergence, allowing them to tell stories. Compared to ETFs, the US election is a more favorable tool for market makers to narrate their stories.
The daily K-line of Bitcoin broke through the dense trading area yesterday and regained lost ground this morning. The structure of a bull market will not be damaged, and experts have a strong demand to redistribute chips. Our decision-making should focus on the big direction first, then the small direction. Therefore, everyone should not hold pessimistic emotions about the market's big direction; some short-term fluctuations are very normal!
The weekly K-line is currently above the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.236. If this position can be maintained, the overall situation for Bitcoin this week will be good. The US election starting tomorrow is a tool utilized by experts, and the only thing we need to pay attention to is the situation of upward and downward spikes. Of course, if you do not have contracts in hand, there is no need to be overly anxious!
Today's Strategy: 68150-70400 range
ETH: Still weak in the long term, currently in the 4H short term below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, waiting to stabilize before choosing the right time to enter!
