The two most important elements in trading and investing are the asset and the position. Even if you select a hundredfold coin, if the position is very light, 1,000 yuan, even if it rises 100 times, it would only be 100,000 yuan, which still won't change much for you.

Bitcoin has risen 90 million times in 14 years, but if you have zero position, even if you knew early, it is still a waste now.

Someone proposed a strategy for catching hundredfold coins, which is to choose your top 100 favorites, buying 100 yuan each, totaling 10,000 yuan, and leave it untouched for two cycles to see. If one of these hundred is a hundredfold coin, you break even; if there are two, then you double your profit.

Some people have further expanded this strategy with a bold idea, buying 100 yuan of every coin traded on the entire crypto market exchanges.

Let's deduce the possible scenarios. Through non-small numbers, I checked the number of coins listed on each platform. Binance has 382 coins, OKX has 274, Huobi has 634, gate.io has 1,904, bitfinex has 143, and kraken has 234. The total number of coins on these exchanges is: 3,189.

If you bought everything, each for 100 yuan, then you would need 318,900 yuan. To break even, you would need over 30 of these 3,000 coins to be hundredfold coins to roughly break even.

The above uses an extreme light position to find possibilities through probability.

There is also a strategy that is the opposite: holding a heavy position in Bitcoin as one asset and keeping it for two cycles without moving.

Putting all funds into Bitcoin without any diversification, holding it for two cycles. In fact, there are indeed some people in the crypto circle who do this; they are the hoarders. What is the result? Looking back at history, the certainty of this result is still very high.

Take the extreme light position strategy I mentioned above with 318,900 yuan. Assuming in 2017, BTC's highest point was 20,000 USD, which is about 140,000 RMB, you could buy 2.28 coins. Seven years later, now it is worth 1,117,200 yuan.

The two different strategies above have an unknown outcome for the first one; so far, there is only theory, and I haven't heard of anyone practicing it. However, there is a piece of information for reference: in 2024, there are 42 that outperformed Bitcoin. Note that this is only outperforming Bitcoin, and there is still a long way to go to reach a hundredfold coin.

In other words, a hundredfold coin is essentially a pie drawn by the project party using candlesticks, visible but unattainable.

The second one has indeed already occurred.

So, to some extent, when to hold a heavy position in Bitcoin, looking at the long term, is always correct; when to hold a light position is always wrong.

However, if we look at the timing of heavy and light positions in Bitcoin from an industry cycle perspective, the most cost-effective approach is to follow the cycle.

In other words,

Light position in 2022, heavy position in 2023, heavy position in 2024 (reduce by half a year), heavy position in 2025.

Light position in 2026, heavy position in 2027, heavy position in 2028 (reduce by half a year), heavy position in 2029.

Light position in 2030, ...

By analogy, from a historical perspective, this is the best arrangement for holding Bitcoin positions. Once the positions are set, the intermediate fluctuations can be completely ignored.

Asset + position + time, when all three elements are achieved, obtaining a big result is a natural outcome.

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