The "Odd Enemy" in the Crypto World: Non-Farm Payroll Shocker! Bitcoin Plummets to 60k, Smart Money Exits! Is a Big Volatility Coming?
Last night's non-farm data stunned the market!
The reported number of jobs was only about one-tenth of expectations. Even more bizarrely, from U.S. stocks to BTC, risk assets this time did not follow the path of "job collapse => economic recession => risk asset decline," but instead rose simultaneously. It had to be forcibly explained as "job collapse => Fed must cut rates => risk asset rise."
However, before the non-farm data was released, the market had already priced in over a 90% probability that the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points in November. Such terrible data only added another 10%, making it a certainty for a rate cut. How could the risk of recession be erased?
Let's take a closer look at the intraday data. It turned out to be a play of rising first and then falling.
This naturally also triggered BTC to go on a roller coaster ride, soaring from 70k to nearly 71.5k at 20:30, then suddenly diving at 22:30, plunging sharply from above 71k down to 69k.
The surge and pullback last night directly caused the holdings of the three major derivatives exchanges—Binance, OK, and Bybit—to drop sharply;
This indicates that the smart funds on both the long and short sides significantly exited last night to avoid the upcoming big volatility, so everyone might also consider reducing their positions next.
The panic from the news has already triggered some whales to make large sell-offs, making the situation increasingly unstable. Currently, it seems that regardless of who the White House leader is, the market is highly likely to experience a flash crash. Of course, these are just some of the things the market is reflecting to us right now; the outcome will ultimately be determined by time. What we need to do is to firmly protect our principal and seize opportunities for a decisive victory.
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