According to the technology maturity curve, our crypto industry's technology development stage has now roughly reached the disillusionment period.
Source: C Labs Crypto Observation
When a new thing appears, the triggering period of technological birth (Innovation Trigger) is also called the dawn period.
A significant feature of this period is that there won't be too many participants.
If the things that everyone knows on the street, how could it possibly be in the dawn period?
The period after the dawn phase is the peak period of excessive expectation.
The typical feature of our crypto industry entering the peak period is the various narratives flying around, such as public chains, GameFi, DeFi, etc.
At this time, a large number of talents and funds flooded into the crypto industry, and that was also the most FOMO time.
However, our crypto technology indeed has a significant impact, so the process from peak to disillusionment has occurred several times.
To be precise, it is after a high-expectation narrative that there is always the next narrative to fill the gap.
It's like a good-looking scoundrel; even though they deceive me every time, I still have expectations each time.
However, the development of new technology industries is often leapfrogging, so our industry's curve should look like this. The big cycle contains many small cycles.
Actually, AI is the same.
During World War II, expectations for AI were also very high. When Sima He, who won the Turing Award in 1975 and the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1978, was budgeting in the 1960s, he once pounded his chest and guaranteed: within the next twenty years, machines would be able to handle all the work that humans could accomplish.
Source: C Labs Crypto Observation
But now it's already 2024, and we are still hiring for jobs like video editing, community operations, and graphic design all over the world.
The so-called incredibly powerful ChatGPT still cannot replace the work of any individual in our team.
Of course, our AI development has also leaped far from the narrative that Sima He initially thought could do anything with general AI.
For example, the artificial neural networks developed in the 1990s, the typical application scenario of this era is character recognition.
Deep learning developed in the 21st century, which is also the main research result of Hinton, who just won the Nobel Prize in Physics recently, mainly applied in the scene of facial recognition.
Now, language models represented by ChatGPT mainly apply to chatting.
Let’s recall the crypto industry entrepreneurs from a few years ago, each one shouting for a revolution, right?
Some want to create the Nasdaq of the crypto industry, while others want to change the world of finance.
And now? One by one shouting for compliance, to realize concrete scenarios.
This is the typical feature of entering the disillusionment period and gradually moving into the steadily rising enlightenment period.
Finally, after there are many useful projects, we will enter a period of high productivity and stability.
When we invest, there is also a psychological curve that aligns quite well with this technology maturity curve.
In this psychological curve, the peak period of excessive expectation is called the pinnacle of ignorance; the period of disillusionment when expectations are shattered is called the valley of despair, and the steadily rising enlightenment period is called the slope of awakening:
Source: C Labs Crypto Observation
When a new technology, such as crypto, appears, and the technology enters the peak period of excessive expectation, investors often find themselves at the pinnacle of ignorance.
After the technology enters the disillusionment period, investors often fall into the valley of despair.
When our crypto industry enters the disillusionment period, our crypto investment will enter the meme super cycle, and everything will feel like a meme.
After the disillusionment period, both crypto technology and participating investors may enter the enlightenment period, and that is when the crypto industry will truly welcome spring.
【Disclaimer】The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article match their specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.
This article is authorized to be reproduced from: (Foresight News)
Original author: Observer Old Wang
