Bitcoin quickly fell below 70,000 USD, what should we look for next?
Today, the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be released, next week the UK will cut interest rates, the US dollar will cut rates, and the election will be finalized.
Non-farm payroll and unemployment rate publication.
Non-farm payroll expectations diverge too much from last week’s values, the Federal Reserve is causing chaos.
Bullish, BTC will likely surge to around 72,000.
Bearish, BTC is expected to have a spike and may reach 67-68.
The US election will be finalized on the 5th.
Harris’s election leads to a pullback in BTC.
Trump's election leads to a sharp rally and deep pullback in BTC.
UK interest rates will be announced on the 7th.
Expected to cut rates by 25 basis points without any surprises.
At 3 AM on the 8th, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate.
The most impactful set of data for BTC after the election.
If rates are cut by 50 basis points, cryptocurrencies will generally see a rally.
Focus on ETH, if there’s no rate cut, it will instead pull back.
A 25 basis point rate cut is seen as an early digestion of good news, followed by a pullback.
Unknowingly, it's been half a year since Bitcoin's fourth halving. How many opportunities do we still have!
There are two months left until 2024. I previously judged that the turning point for the bear market bottom would be around the end of the year. If this wave of Bitcoin breaking 70,000 is not a signal for the start of a bull market, then the next two months will definitely be a good time to add positions. Even if there are short-term losses, there’s no need to worry too much. If you can’t build a certain spot position before the bull market, it will be difficult to make big profits. Therefore, the next two months will have important chain reactions for next year’s potential bull market.
Understanding the general direction, I think everyone has an idea. The core point is to hold spot, how much depends on one’s judgment of the market, cash flow, and risk preference. On a micro level, the segmented operations should start to decrease, continuing to leave a portion of profits, and then considering altcoin allocations, which can be gradually increased. Although the market has shown us over the past year that Bitcoin is the true king, I can confidently tell you that only altcoins can fulfill dreams in a bull market, hence it's necessary to take on some risks.
In terms of market dynamics, Bitcoin broke 2700 the day before yesterday. This wave follows Bitcoin, but the exchange rate has not broken through. Still, even if Ethereum and Bitcoin's exchange rate is at the historical low of around 0.036, the price is still 2700 USD. Those spreading FUD about Ethereum, I wonder where their confidence comes from? As long as your Ethereum wasn’t only bought at highs, the current average cost must be below 2000, and I believe that the target price for Ethereum in a bull market is 10,000 USD, and there is currently no reason to waver in this belief.
This short-term movement still depends on Bitcoin's breakthrough of previous high resistance. Objectively speaking, this pressure is not small; it cannot be said that the lack of a rebound in altcoins means the market has not ended. Bitcoin's prolonged consolidation at high levels without breaking through means it needs to pull back and accumulate strength, because the bullish sentiment for Bitcoin has been quite strong these past two days. Theoretically, a slight pullback is needed, for example, to 67-68 before going up. The election is in 5 days; this timing is quite sensitive and has more uncontrollable factors.
