In the past couple of days, the overall crypto market has experienced a pullback, with Bitcoin dropping below $70,000, currently oscillating around $69,600.
So why is Bitcoin declining? Are there any negative news?
This pullback is mainly due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election.
According to the latest polls, Harris's support rate has started to lead Trump again, which has raised some concerns in the market about Trump's potential defeat.
Moreover, the recent poor performance of tech stocks, along with disappointing U.S. core PCE data, has affected market sentiment and confidence.
According to CNN's latest poll, Harris has a slight lead over Trump nationwide. Trump's advantages in some key swing states have been partially reversed.
This may also be one of the reasons for the sharp decline of Trump's technology group (DJT) and the stock market correction, as the market had previously overvalued the bull market that would follow Trump's election.
Yesterday, Trump congratulated all Bitcoin enthusiasts on the 16th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paper on Twitter.
He also stated that he will end Harris's 'war' on cryptocurrencies and promised to manufacture Bitcoin in the U.S. Finally, he called on everyone to vote for him.
It is worth noting that Moody's Analytics predicted yesterday that Harris's election victory probability is 55.5%.
Their analysis model shows that mortgage rates have significantly decreased since last year, coupled with continuously falling gasoline prices, all of which are improving Harris's odds. Additionally, the growth in American household income may also be favorable for Harris.
Moody's economist Justin Begley also said that the election results are still uncertain because the four states of Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with a total of 57 electoral votes, are key states where the outcome is hard to predict.
He also added that the analysis model ran 1,000 times, and the results showed that Harris's probability of winning is 55.5%.
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick also stated that Bitcoin prices may experience a pullback before the U.S. presidential election on November 5, and volatility may increase in the coming days.
Because many traders will choose to close positions for profit before the election, the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking through $73,700 before the election is decreasing.
Kendrick also mentioned that if Trump wins big in Congress, Bitcoin prices may experience greater volatility, potentially reaching $125,000 before the end of the year, which could trigger a new wave of altcoin frenzy.
In addition, Bitwise CIO stated yesterday that Bitcoin's price could potentially reach $200,000 without relying on a collapse of the dollar.
His viewpoint is based on the increase in global money supply and the growing demand for Bitcoin as a store of value.
Even in the face of political and economic uncertainties, Bitcoin is still seen as an effective tool against inflation.
I think that no matter who is elected, it will be good news for the crypto market.
The new president will definitely boost the economy through monetary easing. Against the backdrop of global monetary easing, investors will increase their investment in risk assets to combat inflation, so Bitcoin is likely to rise.
What we need to do is to buy Bitcoin on dips and hold it for appreciation, without being shaken out.
Let's take a look at the ETF situation:
Although Bitcoin's price has recently corrected, American investors' enthusiasm for Bitcoin remains high.
The holdings of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF have surpassed 1 million coins, with BlackRock holding 430,000 coins, ranking first.
In October, the net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs reached $5.346 billion, the second-highest monthly net inflow.
BlackRock has increased its holdings by 66,309 Bitcoins, with an inflow of $4.638 billion, currently holding 433,713 Bitcoins.
This also led to Bitcoin's price rising from $63,300 to $70,200 in October 2024.
The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs allows Wall Street to legally buy Bitcoin through traditional financial channels, which will be beneficial for the long-term rise of Bitcoin prices.
Given the current trend, American investors are still relatively optimistic about Bitcoin's future performance and need not worry too much.