According to the technology maturity curve, our crypto industry's technological development stage has roughly reached the disillusionment phase:

When a new entity appears, it triggers the innovation trigger phase, also known as the dawn period.

A notable feature of this period is that there won't be too many participants.

If the grandpas and grandmas on the street know about something, how could it possibly be in the dawn phase?

The peak of over-expectation follows the dawn period.

A typical feature of our crypto industry entering the peak phase is the plethora of narratives, such as public chains/Gamefi/Defi, etc.

At this time, a large number of talents and funds flocked into the crypto industry, and that was also the most FOMO time.

It's just that our crypto technology indeed has a large impact, so this peak to disillusionment process has repeated several times.

To be precise, when there is a high-expectation narrative, there is always another narrative to fill the gap.

It's like a handsome jerk; although he deceives me every time, I still have expectations each time.

However, the development of new technological industries is often leapfrogging, so the curve for our industry should look like this. The larger cycle contains many smaller cycles.

Actually, AI is the same.

Back during World War II, expectations for AI were also very high; Sima He, who won the Turing Award in 1975 and the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1978, once guaranteed during budget discussions in the 1960s that machines would be able to perform all tasks that humans could complete within the next twenty years.

But now it's already 2024, and the big shots are just doing video editing/community operations/graphic design jobs, still having to recruit people all over the world.

The so-called powerful ChatGPT still cannot replace the work of any member of our team.

Of course, our AI development has also progressed from the initial narrative believed by Sima He that anything can be done with general AI.

For example, the artificial neural networks developed in the 1990s had a typical application scenario of character recognition.

Deep learning developed in the 21st century is also the main research result of Hinton, who recently won the Nobel Prize in Physics; its main application scenario is facial recognition.

Now, large language models represented by ChatGPT mainly have chat as their application scenario.

Let's look back at the entrepreneurs in the crypto industry a few years ago, each one shouting for a revolution, right?

Some want to create a Nasdaq for the crypto industry, while others want to change the world's finance.

And now? Everyone is shouting for compliance and to realize practical scenarios.

This is a typical feature of entering the disillusionment phase and gradually moving into the steadily rising enlightenment phase.

Finally, after there are more useful projects, it enters a high-yield stable phase.

When we invest, there is also a psychological curve that is quite consistent with this technology maturity curve.

In this psychological curve, the peak of over-expectation is called the pinnacle of ignorance; the disillusionment phase of shattered expectations is called the valley of despair, while the steadily rising enlightenment phase is called the slope of awakening:

When a new technology, such as crypto, emerges, and the technology reaches the peak of over-expectation, investors often stand at the pinnacle of ignorance.

After technology enters the disillusionment phase, investors often fall into the valley of despair.

When we enter the disillusionment phase in the crypto industry, our crypto investments will enter the meme super cycle, where everything seems like a meme.

After the disillusionment phase, both crypto technology and the investors involved may enter the enlightenment phase; this is when the crypto industry will truly welcome spring~