Long term
To begin with, the 2100 holders who own 1000 BTC or more have been accumulating again since August 12, 2024, the bottom of these wallets was on January 19 of the same year. These bitcoins are usually sold for a higher price after a period of inactivity waiting for a large appreciation.
In contrast, of the 100 whales with more than 10,000 BTC, around 20 of them have been getting rid of their Bitcoins since November 14, 2022. However, since 2016, the decrease in these wallets does not necessarily mean something bad for the price of Bitcoin, as it may be associated with the exchange of hands of these BTC or division into other wallets for safety or even eviction from bankrupt brokers or governments that seized the asset but do not believe in Bitcoin. However, these wallets, since 2020 to the present moment, are becoming smarter, as they decrease when prices are high and increase when prices are low, this can represent a risk in the short term if they are trying to hold the price close to 100 thousand dollars. In short, if the price is rising so much with their decrease, imagine what will happen when they increase again:
Medium term
Typically, the MVRV Z-Score indicator shows a peak every 3 or 4 years and a difference between the bottom and the new peak is also 3 to 4 years. Therefore, we may be finding this peak between 2024 and 2025. Currently, we are at 2/10, which is why I try to keep 20% of cash in USDT and BRL to realize periodic profits, according to this indicator:
In turn, the indicator The New Bitcoin Rainbown 2023 Chart tells us that we should be a little bit down to earth until the next halving, as we will probably be in a period of accumulation of the current price up to $26,000. However, the bottom of the next halving will be at $72,000, according to this important indicator:
Short term
Those who follow the channel know that we follow and monitor the price in the short term through operations on Binance futures. Our last post, on October 16, 2024, predicted the price increase from $65,000 to $74,000 to liquidate these traders in billions of dollars:
Post and comments are here But currently, this liquidation heatmap shows us that the short term is more favorable for liquidations around $61,000 in bitcoin, so I do expect corrections in the coming days/weeks:
Heatmap of liquidations up to $61,000 in Bitcoin
Finally, our Fear & Greed indicator is not at the best time for buying, but rather for selling.
Despite this, I am not selling all my crypto market positions, but the ideal, according to this indicator, would be to have only 20% exposure in the crypto market, according to my usual studies.
What do you plan to do after learning this information? Do your research #DYOR .
