Daily Market Analysis (10.30)

Summary:

1. I accept being misled, but even if misled, this 4-hour level decline must be addressed.

2. The U.S. and Japanese stock markets are starting to hit peaks, and risks are increasing accordingly, with large funds withdrawing significantly. However, there is a high probability of no systemic risk before December.

3. The predicted employment data value is absurd; although the actual employment situation is likely to be better than the predicted value, this prediction is not a positive signal in itself.

4. Due to having pulled back to 72800, the smaller levels are no longer diverging. Thus, there will be a 1-hour level decline and rise. This will manifest in the market as high-level sideways fluctuations (the analysis was written in the morning and may continue for more than a day).

5. Current trading plan.

6. Regarding the judgment of the larger level, the consistent conclusion over the past few months remains: this bull market's peak will likely emerge by the end of the year, positioned around 89000. Then there will be a daily level decline and a daily level rise, ultimately leading to a weekly level decline, reaching below 28000 by next summer.

7. For this 4-hour level decline, pay close attention to Ethereum's perfect triple bottom. Altcoin spot will be cleared in two batches by the end of November and December.

8. At the beginning of November, most altcoins will drop to positions near early September. However, by early December, such low altcoin positions are unlikely to be available. Therefore, there’s no rush to sell low-leverage long positions on altcoins by the end of November; maintain the same strategy as spot trading. Once sold, do not buy back.

Operations:

1. For the short position $BTC , exit 1/2 at around 66000, and fully exit at around 64500. If a new high is broken, add short at around 73800. If Bitcoin rises to 73800, then drops back to around 71000, and then rises above 73000, manually stop-loss and exit. Fully exit short position $SOL at 147. Fully exit $ETH at 2250. Take profit on short position and reverse to long.

2. For altcoins, if sector rotation and supplementary rises appear in the next day or two, consider adding 1-2 more shorts.