Is cryptocurrency the real winner of the U.S. election? Bull market surges post-election!
Currently, Trump's probability of winning the U.S. presidential election has risen to 61.3%, a historic high, while Vice President Harris's probability of being elected is 38.7%. Whether Harris or Biden becomes the U.S. president, it would be more favorable for the crypto market than the current president, but if Trump is elected, it will be even more favorable for the crypto market than with Harris.
Last night, Bitcoin returned to above $73,500, hitting a new high since June 7th of this year, just 150 points shy of the March high. Current market sentiment has seen a spike and then a pullback, with profit-taking causing a drop from $73,500 to $72,200, but the greed index remains unchanged.
Currently, the crypto bull market needs an engine, but the Bitcoin bull market only requires liquidity.
With the first interest rate cut in September, according to the Federal Reserve, the balance sheet reduction is still ongoing, which will counteract the liquidity released by the rate cuts, so the current interest rate remains neutral. However, the overall direction of rate cuts or gradual quantitative easing will definitely not reverse.
In November's election, regardless of who wins, funds avoiding election volatility will return to the market, gradually providing liquidity.
During the November Federal Reserve meeting, it is highly probable that the interest rate will be cut by another 0.25 percentage points, and it is very likely to announce a slowdown in balance sheet reduction, or even end it, officially starting the quantitative easing cycle, which will significantly boost market confidence.
After that, until 2025, when interest rates drop to 3.25% or even lower, liquidity will continue to flow into the market, whether in the stock market or Bitcoin, both will continue to rise.
As for where the peak of the bull market is, the specific timing cannot be predicted, but when the quantitative easing cycle ends and the total M2 begins to shrink, that will be the signal to escape the peak. Do not cling to the fight; take profits early. #狗狗币创数月新高 #金价持续走高 #BTC挑战历史最高价