Stimulated by the US election and US stock earnings season, Bitcoin surged to US$73,620 yesterday, just US$150 away from its all-time high of US$73,777.
However, compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum's performance is much worse, and most projects are currently being drained of money by Bitcoin.
A friend asked, will there be a big correction after the US election?
Judging from the trends after previous US elections, the three months after the election are generally favorable for risk markets, and it is highly unlikely that the market will plummet as soon as the results come out.
Over the past 60 years, risk markets have overwhelmingly continued to rise after elections.
Therefore, we can look forward to whether Bitcoin can hit a high of 90,000 to 100,000 US dollars by the end of the year.
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Next, let’s take a look at the news and data that are worth paying attention to:
1. The US election enters its final week, with Trump taking advantage in seven swing states
According to polling data from multiple American media and authoritative organizations, Trump performed very well on comprehensive polling websites.
He is leading his opponents to varying degrees in all seven swing states, and even in the national average poll where Harris previously had the advantage, Trump surpassed Harris for the first time.
According to data from the University of Florida's Election Lab, 51 million people have voted, accounting for 32% of the total votes in the 2020 US election.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed 47% of voters support Trump's economic policies, compared with 37% for Harris.
On the prediction website Polymarket, 10 whale addresses spent a total of $70.6 million betting on Trump to win the election in October.
Currently, Trump has a 66.6% chance of winning the election on Polymarket.
However, some problems also occurred during the voting process.
U.S. officials are investigating after two ballot boxes near Portland, Oregon and Vancouver, Washington were set on fire in the early hours of October 28, local time, leaving hundreds of ballots damaged.
Charlie McElligott, managing director at Nomura Securities, also warned that the market may have over-hedged expectations that Trump and the Republicans would win both houses of Congress, and that it could result in Harris's approval rating being higher than expected.
Judging from the current poll data, Trump is beginning to lead Harris. Unless the Democrats tamper with the vote, Trump is likely to be the US president this time.
However, we cannot be blindly optimistic. The Democratic Party still has many means at its disposal, and we must reserve some bullets to deal with emergencies and prevent black swan events.
2. Due to Elon Musk’s close interaction with Trump, DOGE contract holdings surged to $1.3 billion.
As Trump's approval rating rises, Dogecoin's contract holdings surged to $1.3 billion, and DOGE prices rose 15% in 24 hours.
DOGE open interest has increased 33% from Sunday to 8 billion tokens, approaching its all-time high set in April.
The reason for the rise was the close interaction between Elon Musk and Trump, in which they discussed the establishment of a "Department of Government Efficiency" (D.O.G.E.) to optimize government spending.
Trump’s promise to invite Musk to join a government efficiency commission if re-elected has fueled bullish expectations for DOGE.
The market currently believes that if Trump wins the election, DOGE prices may rise further.
3. BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF traded $3.3 billion yesterday, a six-month high
BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) saw trading volume of $3.3 billion on October 29, the highest level in the past six months, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on the X platform.
He also said: “It’s a little strange because Bitcoin is up 4% and usually ETF volumes surge during economic downturns or crises.
However, sometimes trading volume may surge if there is a FOMO (fear of missing out) frenzy, such as ARKK in 2020.
Based on the surge in Bitcoin prices in the past few days, he guessed that this time it was due to market FOMO.
This means that there may be more large capital inflows this week, and Bitcoin is likely to hit a high of $80,000 ahead of schedule.
4. Bitcoin is approaching a record high, but retail investors are not very interested
“Bitcoin is about to break through its all-time high, but retail interest is almost zero,” Miles Deutscher, a cryptocurrency analyst, said on the X platform.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent gains, the search interest score for “Bitcoin” currently stands at just 23 out of 100, according to Google Trends, well below its peak at the end of May 2021.
But according to Sensor Tower data, Coinbase is currently ranked 308th.
However, it is worth noting that Coinbase rose 167 spots between October 28 and 29, which may indicate that Bitcoin's price increase is regaining the attention of retail investors.
This also shows that the participation of retail investors in the market is not high at present. Once retail investors start to enter the market on a large scale, the price of Bitcoin may rise further.
Summarize
Judging from the current trend, the market is still optimistic about the future development of Bitcoin.
Judging from the ETF data, American investors have begun to feel FOMO, and Bitcoin is likely to hit $80,000 this week.
Next, we can focus on the results of the US election. According to the current poll data, Trump has a high chance of winning. But we can't be blindly optimistic and have to keep some bullets to deal with black swan events.
After the US election, it is usually beneficial to the risk market. We can look forward to whether Bitcoin can hit a high of 90,000 to 100,000 US dollars by the end of the year.
