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With only one week left in the U.S. presidential election, in order to win the support of swing states, Trump finally brought out his most powerful campaign strategy at a campaign event in Pennsylvania. That is to promise voters that if he becomes president of the United States again, he will not start a war against other countries and send Americans to the battlefield to "die."
Trump promised voters that he would not go to war with other countries
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Of course, Trump is only responsible for making big promises, but he will not elaborate on his "peace agenda" in detail. At the same time, he emphasizes that he is different from Harris, who will only drag the United States into the "Third World War."
At this point, Trump's wording was very inflammatory. He said that if Harris became president, it would be tantamount to "gambling with the lives of millions of Americans" because she was "too incompetent" and was simply not qualified for the position, let alone dealing with other major powers. It is even questionable whether she could adequately respond to geopolitical hotspots.
Not only that, he further reinforced this position through his own social media platform, saying that if Harris served as president for four years, the Middle East would be "plunged into 40 years of war" and Americans would go to the battlefield. Then, Trump emphasized that he would be committed to "preventing world wars" and would not send Americans to die. While Trump promised "not to go to war with other countries," his deputy Vance emphasized through media channels that Trump was a "peaceful presidential candidate."
[Trump used his best campaign strategy in the final stages of the election]
Vance also revealed that the reason why Trump had a bad relationship with the US military during his last term was because Pentagon officials and some Republican establishment figures wanted to make the United States the "world policeman", but Trump had a different view on this and he refused to be involved in a "ridiculous conflict."
The authenticity of these words is not important, as long as voters buy into them. For a while, the two sides echoed each other, indicating that this was a premeditated public opinion offensive. After leaving Pennsylvania and arriving in New York, Trump began to promote his foreign policy, once again making it clear that he would not start a war during his term. But there are always exceptions, and Sino-US relations are this exception. Trump just finished saying "no foreign war", and then immediately added that if there is a day when China and the United States go to war, he will ensure that the United States "gains the advantage."
[Vance is also exaggerating Trump’s “peace policy”]
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As for how to achieve this, Trump still did not elaborate further, which is also in line with the characteristics of campaign language, which is full of gimmicks but no reality. Whether it will be fulfilled or not depends entirely on his personal wishes after being elected. While promoting his peaceful image, Trump did not forget to make special treatment for Sino-US relations.
This seems to mean that his peace policy, especially his promise of "not going to war with other countries", is not applicable to the situation of Sino-US competition. Moreover, the concept of Sino-US strategic competition started in the Trump era, and the Biden administration has only carried it forward.
In addition, we can also understand that the complexity of the structural contradictions between China and the United States has exceeded the scope of Trump's peace policy, and it is impossible to guarantee that China and the United States will "not offend each other." Or, Trump's promise of "not going to war with other countries" itself serves the strategic goal of the game between China and the United States, so Sino-US relations will become this exception.
[Trump said Harris would only send Americans to die on the battlefield]
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The biggest geopolitical risk between China and the United States, and the one most likely to lead to a "war" between the two countries, is undoubtedly the Taiwan Strait issue. It is worth mentioning that Trump has been discussing the Taiwan issue a lot recently, and he has been playing both sides, saying that if mainland China recovers Taiwan, he will impose higher tariffs on China; on the other hand, he accused Taiwan of stealing the high-tech industry of the United States and demanded that the Taiwan authorities pay more "protection fees."
However, from our perspective, even if it is only within the United States, Trump alone has no say in the contest between China and the United States on the Taiwan issue. As for other geopolitical hotspots, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump is confident that he can "clean up the mess" for the Biden administration. He has repeatedly stated during this period that if he is elected in November, he will take action as soon as possible to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as soon as possible without waiting for the handover next year. On the Palestinian-Israeli issue, Trump accused the Democratic Party of "weakness and incompetence", emphasizing that if he were still there, such a thing would not happen.
Trump arrives in New York for campaign event
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Trump's strong emphasis on his peaceful stance is not only a campaign strategy to win over voters, but also a signal to the outside world that after he returns to the White House, the contraction and isolationism of the US foreign policy will be further strengthened, even returning to the situation four years ago. But then again, not going to war does not mean that Trump will not adopt a belligerent tariff policy. His remarks are essentially a presupposition, giving voters a choice: either choose him and spend four years of relative peace and stability under the "America First" policy environment; or choose Harris and see how she and the Democratic Party will toss the United States into a geopolitical conflict. To some extent, the reason why Trump is confident in promising "not to go to war" is because he believes that his tariff policy will provide a universal solution to any complex geopolitical problem. Not only Sino-US relations, but also US-European economic and trade relations can be solved by tariffs, and even in dealing with complex international supply chain restructuring issues, tariffs are still useful.
Although many people will have reservations about this, as long as Trump firmly believes that tariffs are "more the better" for the United States, no one can change his mind. The "peace policy" he advocates is similar, and the fact that China is the exception more or less reflects Trump's true thoughts on China.
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