Nothing significant happened last week; let’s discuss the news that occurred.
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 97.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 2.3%. The last reduction was 50 basis points, and although it was somewhat unexpected, the result was good. This means liquidity will gradually be released; another 25 basis points will provide a strong boost to the market. Next week's meeting is crucial.
2. FTX settles the lawsuit against Bybit exchange for $228 million. This lawsuit was initially filed by the FTX bankruptcy group in 2023, aiming to recover funds to repay former clients and creditors. The settlement will allow FTX to have more funds to distribute, which is good for individuals and the market; most of the funds are expected to flow back into the market, stimulating the big players.
Regarding FTT, some people believe it has no investment value. If the FTX settlement concludes, I think FTT will still have opportunities to perform, after all, it has been around for so many years and has its uses.
3. The Block co-founder: Meme B will showcase various styles, such as: community B, celebrity B, AI B. The biggest difference in this round of MEME is the expansion of sectors and subdivision. Previously, MEME was more of an emotional reflection, regardless of whether it was WEB2 or WEB3 hot topics, often about dogs or cats. Now MEME is starting to integrate more possibilities, with AI and art becoming hot topics recently, showing a certain correlation with institutional speculation, indicating that anything can be MEME; it has matured.
4. Vitalik: The Ethereum Foundation sells E to pay compensation to ecosystem developers. There is a market indicator. The foundation has sold a total of 4,066 E through CowSwap this year, worth over $11.24 million, with the last sale occurring on October 23. I personally do not believe this nonsense; according to market indicators, every time E is sold, it tends to drop for a while.
From the current market perspective, E fell from a low of 2600 to around 2300, and is now oscillating between 2400 and 2500. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate further, which is suitable for automated trading bots to set up L grid strategies in the range of 2300 to 2600, waiting for the meeting to conclude before it may rise again; patience is required.
5. Solana's DEX has ranked first in daily trading volume for 17 consecutive days, Ethereum's DEX ranks second, and BASE's DEX ranks third. The hot outflow MEME comes from SOL, causing a surge on-chain. Additionally, their transaction fees are really low, and the transfer speed is fast, making entry and exit very convenient. In contrast, some on the E chain have taxes and high fees, leading to a poor user experience.
If this cycle does not involve on-chain, embracing SOL is also a good choice. There is a chance to hit 200 again and reach a new high.
6. Crypto market maker Wintermute currently holds $33 million in MEME B, including MOODENG, GOAT, MEW, PONKE, etc.
A few days ago, I was still thinking about how popular on-chain MEME is this year, especially in the CTO community. How capital enters the game until AI appeared, the combination of art + MEME is essentially also a play for VC institutions. It's really intense, and in the end, retail investors will definitely pick up the tab.
7. The big brother in the U.S. has purchased $30 billion worth of BTC through spot ETFs in the past 10 months. It can be seen that mainstream views on the big brother are consistently positive, which is also the reason why the big brother has been oscillating around 60K since February. The institutional buying can remain optimistic; you can understand it as a large collective new fund entering, continuously acquiring new chips. Only when enough chips are gathered will it continue to rise.
Currently oscillating around 67K, the big brother breaking a new high is just a matter of time, depending on which news can stimulate it; then the entire market will be fully activated.
8. TIA, OP, etc., will have large unlocks this week, with TIA's unlock amounting to $940 million. We can see that these VC B unlocks have been on a downtrend; with such large market caps being unlocked, and the market liquidity being so tight, who will take over? Retail investors aren’t foolish; they will temporarily avoid it and just observe.
9. Greed index at 72 indicates greed, which is too high; let's see how to bring it down.
Playing in this market requires flexibility and adaptability. In September, certain platforms began with MEME like NEIRO; I have mentioned multiple times that the wind has changed, and we need to follow. Now that the MEME market is booming, certain platforms have continuously listed MEME contracts, while the secondary market is as cold as winter. Institutional funds have moved to the primary chain, fully embracing MEME. Creating a market cap of hundreds of millions in just a few days shows that in this market, no one is truly genuine or fake, right or wrong; whoever has traffic can bring wealth effects is real; as long as you choose the right timing, you can profit. Currently, if you haven't participated yet, try getting involved on-chain, like the upcoming U.S. election MEME or the upcoming Christmas MEME. Playing MEME requires thinking faster and further than others; then you can make money.
The secondary market is just about patiently waiting and embracing the cycle; it won't be too boring.
