Donald Trump's chances of winning the election have risen to a record 30.1% against Kamala Harris.

According to Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, Trump holds 65.1% while Harris is at 35%. This platform is becoming a go-to place for crypto enthusiasts and election watchers who are eager to bet on real-time changes.

Forget traditional polls – this market is much more responsive, but it’s still far from the liquidity of mainstream financial markets. “It may seem like a cultural phenomenon,” said founder Shayne Coplan, “but as a financial market, it’s still small.”

Betting on Trump comes

Trump is heavily favored by crypto voters. His chances of winning key swing states sit at around 64% on average. Harris, on the other hand, holds 35%.

His chances take a slight dip in places like Wisconsin and Michigan, where he drops below 60%, but he's still the favorite for now.

The increase in Trump's chances is no coincidence. Several high-stakes bettors placed large bets on his victory.

Four individuals in particular collectively lost $25 million, significantly increasing Trump’s odds. Meanwhile, platforms like PredictIt cap individual bets at $850 to prevent this kind of influence.

Polymarket’s growth has been explosive. It started the year with $9.5 million worth of stablecoins locked on its platform. By August, that number had skyrocketed to $220 million.

Total lifetime transaction volume on the platform has now surpassed $1 billion, with nearly $430 million tied to the U.S. election.

However, despite its growth, Polymarket remains relatively illiquid, leaving it open to manipulation by a few large players. The anonymity of traders only adds to concerns.

There are rumors about possible wash trading, where traders artificially manipulate prices by trading with themselves.

The platform has seen increased scrutiny in recent weeks as big spenders have bet heavily on Trump’s victory. One user, known as Fredi9999, has bet more than $18 million on Republican results so far. That includes $13 million on Trump alone, making Fredi9999 the top bettor on the platform.

Network analysts believe that Fredi9999 is not acting alone. According to Arkham Intelligence and X (formerly Twitter) sleuths, Fredi9999 and three other accounts may be controlled by the same person.

Together, these accounts lost more than $43 million due to the Republican results. All of these accounts are verified as being based outside the US, as Polymarket does not allow US-based accounts to trade on its platform.

Polymarket is taking steps to double-check the compliance of its users, especially those who place massive bets, to ensure that none of them are breaking the rules.

The surge in Trump betting has also caught the attention of regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket in early 2022 for offering illegal trading services.

As part of that deal, the platform agreed to shut down its services in the US and focus on international markets.

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