If we look at the last round, we can roughly divide the market into three phases using the price and BTC market share.
Phase 1: Bear market, coin price declines (red arrow), BTC market share rises (blue arrow), these two form an intersection. This is the bear market as we typically understand it, where the decline of altcoins far exceeds that of BTC.
Phase 2: Coin price fluctuates / slowly rises, BTC market share also rises. At this time, the two lines are parallel. This is equivalent to BTC rebounding from the bottom, but the amount of funds is still insufficient, thus reflecting BTC's own bull market, while altcoins have not kept up.
Phase 3: Bull market, reflected in the rise of coin prices and the decline of BTC market share, at this time the two lines again form an intersection, indicating that market funds are chasing higher returns, leading to an altcoin bull market.
Let's take a look at this round, starting from the end of 2021. During the bear market, the price of coins declines, but paradoxically, the market share of BTC remains stable, basically unchanged. So this bear market is quite different from the last one, possibly because Bitcoin, as liquidity, has run away first, while altcoins have not really bottomed out.
From the bear bottom at the end of 2022 to now, it resembles the previous round's Phase 2, which is the fluctuation period. In this phase, the coin price rises / market share rises, with the two lines being parallel.
It can be inferred that this bull market still lacks a Phase 3, which means BTC's price rises significantly, accompanied by a decline in market share, known as altcoin season.
Will there still be an altcoin season in Phase 3? Personally, I tend to think there will be, mainly depending on external funding. If the funding is sufficient, there shouldn't be a problem. If the external funding is lukewarm, it might also lead to a lukewarm altcoin season.
