Cause (zero).
In the last bull market, I lost everything on contracts, missing out on most of the bull market. I didn’t trade coins afterward and chose to mine, which led to another heavy blow and exited the market, waiting for the black swan's return. During the bear market, BTC was still stubbornly waiting at 20,000 but never arrived. I usually don't watch much, but in November last year, I suddenly found that BTC and ETH had taken off. I was wrong; there was no black swan, but the bull market had come, and I couldn't wait any longer.
Phase One: Entering the market (steadily pursuing victory with a principal of 1.16 million, 640 BNB).
Originally planned to go all in on ETH, but BTC and ETH have already risen. Fortunately, BNB is still at 235 due to CZ's influence. The fundamentals of Binance have not shaken, yet the price is so low. Amidst everyone’s complaints, I went all in with 1.16 million. Due to buying USDT, I had to wait a long time for each deposit. Initially, it was fine; I bought back near 235. However, after putting in 600,000 from that 1.16 million, it was already around 270. In just a few days, it went up. I thought to wait, but after a few days, it was already 300+. I held on a bit longer, thinking it would go lower, but it didn’t; I entered at 313. There was no way out unless I wanted to give up this bull market. Otherwise, I could only enter at higher levels. This was a painful lesson. After this, I never looked at the price for spot BNB; I just bought with my eyes closed.
If your goal is the stars and the sea, and if it’s long-term, please don’t hesitate for a bit of short-term profit.
Phase Two: Lowering the baseline, trying contracts.
Long-term spot is too boring; it has nothing to do with the market, and I don't need to look at the price. I want to play with contracts to test my short-term thinking; contracts are basically also BNB.
The first time the ETF launched, everyone was filled with expectations, but I felt the landing would be bearish. I tried contracts for the first time; I forgot the specifics, but it did drop. However, I shouldn't have made much money; the rebound was quick, and I can't remember since the amount was small.
The second time, I didn't play afterward. On a mining output that didn't open for trading, it dropped a lot. Unhappy, I wanted to make up for it with contracts, so I sold the mine for 1,800 USDT on March 5. I forgot why I shorted, but I was right; it did drop. I remember clearly it went from 1,800 USDT down through the night. It kept dropping, and I felt it was almost done, so I closed and reversed to go long. But soon after, it accelerated down. At that time, I could have chosen to use my spot to serve as margin, but I didn’t want to touch my spot. It simply exploded. After that, I gave up for a month, and soon after it took off, from a low of 350 to a high of 640 in just a few days. I regretted it so much, why didn’t I add margin? Compared to spot positions, my contract positions were absolutely not going to explode. I also learned that downtrends need to wait for acceleration; sometimes they reverse directly. Most of the time, there will be an accelerated drop.
Third time, after March it started to consolidate sideways. Last time I judged correctly but still lost money, I was unwilling to accept it and started trading BNB-denominated contracts, not investing a lot, just a few hundred BNB. The result was constant fluctuation, not earning much, and feeling anxious every day. After a while, I gave up on contracts again.
Phase Three: Greed, giving up the baseline.
After several months of fluctuation with BNB, it broke through 600 and shot up to 720. I regretted why I didn’t continue holding contracts (my contracts are basically all long; I can't hold short positions that go against my recognized big trend). Moreover, I started at 235 with a 1x leveraged position, and I'm nearly achieving my goal now. I'm afraid of black swans, even if it's a one in a thousand chance. (I use low leverage, 1x long-term. There’s basically no stop-loss; I just hold my positions.) Because of the fear of that one in a thousand chance, I feel I've missed out on too much. So from 720, it started to drop, and I entered around 650 with a position of 200-300 BNB.
(Hesitating and fluctuating for a few months, I thought I had digested the new round of upward momentum, but the fact proved otherwise. In a narrative-free crypto space combined with the scale of traditional institutions, the previous round of VC coins combined was too weak and too difficult. No one expected it to hover at such high levels for over seven months, and it hasn’t even broken through yet. Whether it was the 2017 smart contract ICO or the 2021 DeFi, both changed the entire industry with technological innovation, but this time it didn’t happen. Coupled with the scale, institutions, and the number of coins, it made it too weak and too difficult.)
As a result, from 650, it continuously dropped, and I slowly added positions in increments of 10. I won’t go into specifics; I shorted once to recover and then longed again, but it still fell to a low of 450. It was terrible. The rebound to 500 hit my limit for contract holdings. A holding of 1,000 BNB. Back then, spot BNB was around 700, but I held on to get back to 600 for profit and didn't sell. It dropped again to a low of 400. It was too painful, too torturous. Yet, I still held on, and when it rebounded to 600, I still didn’t sell, filled with hope for the future. The longer the fluctuation lasted, the more I felt there would definitely be more. It dropped again to 470; it was too painful. I couldn't hold on at 490, so I cut losses and sold all my spot holdings. At that moment, I was hit hard and didn't want to play anymore. But when it dropped to 470 and rebounded to 490, I still wasn’t willing to let go and went all in on spot again, holding 1,000 BNB and continued. It rebounded to 600 again, and I didn’t sell at 618. Back and forth, it dropped below 600 again, and I sold at 588.
It got a bit chaotic later. There was short-term participation, and I quickly returned to long-term. After once hitting 600 and then dropping down, I sold at 595, making some profit. Now the price is around 590+.
Phase Four: Current situation, confusion.
I don't know what to do now. I have no contracts, and at this position, I lack the courage and conviction to enter again. Long-term, last night I placed an order at 571 to re-enter but missed it at 573 by a little. I still see the future; the spot is always there. As long as I have USDT, I buy with my eyes closed. But if I enter at 590 and it retraces to the 400s, I really can’t take it. I remember when it dropped from 650 to 400. At that time, I only had spot with no contracts worth 4 million. When it dropped to 400, considering my contract losses, it was 4 million - 1.8 million. Too painful.
In March, the peak was 640; my spot was worth 3.2 million. Later at 720, it was worth 4 million. Now at 590, it’s worth 4.3 million. It continuously increases. The number of coins has grown from initially 640 to now 1,020. Aside from the initial principal, all later increases come from mining reinvestment + contract profits. The spot has never been traded in segments, just held continuously.
Around 4.13, there was the first major drop in altcoins. At that time, I invested 200,000 wanting to catch the bottom, but later faced the second and third major drops and got stuck badly. I also added 70,000 later. The altcoin principal was 270,000, and I held the spot without trading, and now I have around 180,000 left. I didn’t calculate it carefully; I spread my net on several coins.
Since BNB reached 650, I have basically held contracts continuously. A few days ago, my heart was finally crushed, and I closed my positions. (I’ve always maintained a long-term extreme of 1,000 BNB holdings, and the last time I expanded the baseline, I increased it to 2,500 BNB. So I ran away, too fearful...) No contracts for a few days, and my heart has calmed down a lot. I’m not as afraid of selling off now. (I firmly believe in the future, so I feel it will take off every day. Once I’m not holding, I’m afraid of being left behind and afraid of selling off.)
Timing and fate. Too many decisions, each affecting the future. So many imperfections, so much pain and suffering, but I can still accept the current result. Not touching contracts, my cost is already at a winning position. Unless Binance goes bankrupt, I can't lose, and I can still mine. However, my goal this time is 10 million. I originally planned to get to BNB 20,000, but it seems the hope is getting smaller. How to achieve the goal without contracts? I don't want to touch altcoins and don't understand memes. I want to win steadily.
You can choose to hold spot and let time take its course. I basically think it can definitely reach 10 million, just don't know if it will happen in this bull market this year or in the next four to five years. I hope it will be this time; I want it quickly.
Trading coins is a continuous balancing act between the greed and fear in one's heart.
This fluctuating period of over seven months has killed too many people. Many have exited the market, and fewer people are speaking in the groups. There are no two groups left, and there's nowhere to boast, so 1 is to post and record my experiences roughly. 2 is that I will write a diary in the square to boast and pass the time. Just watching the 200 traders and the explosive index with his brother is not enough to see! Many details, mental states, and thoughts were not written down, but it's roughly like this.
In the end, for a long-term stable pursuit of victory, not for the big players, BNB is a good choice for you. $BNB Why not BTC, ETH, or SOL, which I don't believe in but many do? We can discuss this later.
Wishing all the experienced traders can reach their goals in this bull market.
