In a new video update, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen tells his 818,000 YouTube subscribers that ETH could follow a similar pattern to 2019 and plummet to the lower end of the logarithmic regression range, setting the altcoin's upper limit around $1,000.
The logarithmic regression band is designed to track the fair value of an asset using "bubble-free data," the analyst said.
"The reason I'm comparing 2024 to 2019 is because if you look at the rate hike cycle, if you look at interest rates, the Fed started cutting rates when ETH/USD went to the bottom of the log regression line — when it came home, when the Fed started cutting rates. And now the same thing is happening again. The Fed is starting to cut rates, and as they do that, ETH/USD is trending lower, probably until Q4."
Cowen also says that ETH vs. Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) may have already hit a market bottom, even if ETH/USD has yet to go lower.
“Remember, in 2019, ETH/Bitcoin bottomed before ETH/USD. ETH/Bitcoin bottomed in September. Coincidentally, ETH/Bitcoin is currently set to bottom in September 2024. It may fall a little, but I don’t think it will fall that much. I really don’t think so. I mean, it may fall a little, but not necessarily. I could easily see it bottoming pretty soon, bouncing up, and then going up in 2025. But even though ETH/Bitcoin bottomed in September 2019, ETH/USD has continued to fall.”
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