Reasons why history is hard to replicate
1. Initial valuations vary greatly
- Last cycle: projects like BNB and SOL had initial FDVs of only tens of millions of dollars
- Current cycle: new projects listed on Binance can reach valuations of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars
- Growth potential has already been consumed by project parties and institutions
2. Token rights are alienated
- Most tokens only have nominal governance rights
- Protocol revenue is decoupled from token holders
- UNI is a typical case: when the protocol makes money, benefits are hard to pass on to token holders
The "perfect business" of Web3 entrepreneurship
Current Web3 entrepreneurship has unique advantages:
- Investors are quick to act, fundraising is easy
- Community members actively endorse and promote the project
- Free access to a large number of test users
- Project parties only need to allocate 5-10% for airdrops to gain attention
- There is significant room for manipulation, and the phenomenon of front-running is common
Investors need to have a clear understanding
1. **Changes in Market Environment**
- The hundredfold returns of the last cycle were a specific historical opportunity
- Current high starting valuations have already overdrawn the room for growth
- The main purpose is for project parties and institutions to profit
2. **The Nature of Token Models**
- Most are of the "air token" nature
- Lack of substantial rights protection
- Protocol revenue is difficult to benefit ordinary holders
In this market environment, investors need to recognize the reality: the crazy market of the last cycle is hard to replicate, with issues like overvaluation and the virtual governance rights increasing the investment risks of new projects. When pursuing projects, it is necessary to assess the project's fundamentals more cautiously, rather than blindly expecting a "hundredfold market" to reoccur.