Trump's lead in the polls has increased the demand for safe-haven assets, leading to heightened volatility in Bitcoin in the short term. Historical data shows that when geopolitical risks rise, Bitcoin becomes a safe haven for funds.
Let's first look at various indicator data:
From the short-term 1-hour chart perspective, BTC's current price is below the 50-day EMA (67,814.2) and the 25-day EMA (67,571.80), indicating selling pressure.
The 7-day EMA is 67,642.6, and the short-term moving average has begun to flatten and curve slightly downward, signaling that the market is about to enter a phase of oscillation or adjustment. The 99-day EMA (68,231.0) forms strong resistance above the price, and BTC's upward momentum will be limited until this level is broken.
- MACD: Currently in the negative zone (DIF -273.2, DEA -246.5), market momentum is weakening, and selling pressure is strong. MACD histogram also shows a downward trend, but has recently converged, indicating a slowing of the downward momentum in the short term.
- RSI: The current RSI(6) is 51.8, RSI(12) is 43.5, temporarily in a neutral zone, with no obvious overbought or oversold signals. However, the RSI has gradually receded from a high position, indicating further downward space.
Short-term support level: $66,800 (If this level is broken, it may accelerate the decline to the $64,000 region).
Short-term resistance level: $68,000 (If this resistance is broken, there is potential for a short-term rebound to $69,500).
From the perspective of capital flow, the net outflow of large orders (-84.8501 BTC) within one hour shows that major funds are withdrawing from the market, indicating strong bearish sentiment. The net inflow of large orders is insufficient to support a market rebound, and the focus remains on corrections in the short term.
The leverage long position ratio is slightly higher than the short position, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious, with no clear bullish or bearish signs, as the market awaits a clear direction. Therefore, the market may still be in a phase of oscillation and adjustment.
The active selling volume is slightly greater than the active buying volume, indicating significant short-term selling pressure in the market. Combined with capital flow data, it suggests that there may be further testing of lower support levels in the short term.
Short-term strategy (1-hour cycle):
- Opening position: It is recommended to buy on dips in the **$67,000 - $66,800** range and wait for short-term rebound opportunities.
- Stop-loss level: Set at $66,400 to control potential risks.
- Target: If the market rebounds, consider closing positions in the $68,500 - $69,000 range.
Medium-term strategy (4-hour cycle):
- Opening position: If the price breaks below $66,000, consider gradually going long in the $64,000 - $65,000 range.
- Stop-loss level: Set stop-loss below $63,000 to avoid further downward risk.
- Target: If the rebound is successful, the target can be set at **$70,000 - $72,000**, where there is strong resistance.
Risk control and position management:
- Current market volatility has increased, it is recommended to operate with light positions, controlling the position between 10-20% to maintain flexibility.
- If BTC breaks through $68,000, consider adding positions, but closely monitor macro market changes (such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, Trump's campaign trends, etc.).
In summary, in the short term, BTC prices are under significant downward risk due to both technical and capital pressure. Short-term investors can consider buying on dips while controlling risks and anticipating a rebound. Medium-term investors may wait for clearer trend signals, positioning long near key support levels. It is also necessary to be cautious of further impacts from global macroeconomic and political events (such as Trump's campaign polls, Federal Reserve policies) and adjust trading strategies.
