Emphasized the importance of grasping the current situation and enhancing understanding, summarizing the following key points to prove this:

1. **Limited Impact of the U.S. Elections**: Over the past decade, despite the transitions between Presidents Trump and Biden, Bitcoin has experienced two cycles of bull and bear markets, but there is no direct correlation between the two.

2. **Job Market and Monetary Policy**: The current improvement in the job market may delay the implementation of interest rate cuts, as the decline in the unemployment rate could slow the magnitude and pace of rate cuts, which has significant implications for monetary policy formulation.

3. **Relationship Between U.S. Stocks and Cryptocurrency Market**: The cryptocurrency market often operates independently of the declines in U.S. stocks; even if U.S. stocks reach new highs, the response from the cryptocurrency market may not be positive. This raises the question: how will the cryptocurrency market react if U.S. stocks decline?

4. **ETF Inflows and Market Performance**: Despite a significant influx of funds into BTC recently, the price has not risen significantly, indicating that large amounts of capital are also exiting. Even large institutional investors, such as Grayscale and BlackRock, cannot guarantee consistent profits.

5. **Limitations of Technical Analysis**: The weekly MACD golden cross is often seen as a bullish signal for the market, but in reality, it may not hold much significance, as a death cross may immediately follow a golden cross.

6. **Impact of Monetary Policy on Cryptocurrency Prices**: Compared to the previous halving cycle, the key factor influencing Bitcoin's long-term trend is monetary policy. Whether interest rates are raised or lowered, the impact of monetary policy in this cycle will last longer than in the previous one.

These viewpoints emphasize the importance of considering the current market conditions and macroeconomic factors in investment decisions, rather than solely relying on technical analysis or the simple repetition of historical cycles.