On Monday, spot gold rose to $2740/ounce, continuing to set a new historical high. Citibank expects gold prices to reach $3000/ounce in the next 6-12 months. The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November has risen to 99.3%, with a 0.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and a 0% probability of maintaining current rates.
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to conduct options trading based on BTC spot ETFs. The SEC stated that it believes options trading for BTC ETFs will allow for hedging, provide more liquidity, better price efficiency, and lower volatility, as well as improve market transparency and efficiency for these and related products. Hong Kong media reports that data from Hong Kong Cyberport shows that its startups successfully raised over HK$3.7 billion in funding in the year ending September 2024, an increase of 23% year-on-year, bringing the total financing amount to over HK$41.2 billion. Hong Kong Cyberport announced that the Cyberport Venture Capital Forum is scheduled to take place from October 24 to 25, focusing on how emerging technologies such as Web 3.0 and AI can help startups and investors break boundaries. Meta (Facebook) has a market value of $1.458 trillion, surpassing BTC's $1.349 trillion, ranking in the top ten global assets. Payment giant Stripe acquired the stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion, marking the largest acquisition in the cryptocurrency sector. On October 21, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index reported 72, up from 73 yesterday, with market sentiment reaching a three-month high over the past five days. Last week's average fear and greed index was reported at 48, while last month's average was 54. CryptoQuant analyst Burakkesmeci stated: ETH addresses have accumulated over 19 million ETH, a 65% increase since the beginning of the year. Burakkesmeci expects that by the end of this year, these addresses will hold over 20 million ETH, with a price of about $4000 at that time.
Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, stated that there is a significant correlation between ETH and U.S. Treasury yields, predicting that the altcoin bull market will begin with the next rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Matrixport reports that as the likelihood of Trump's victory rapidly increases, this could impact various sectors of the economy including cryptocurrencies, with the potential for BTC to rise significantly. In February, predictions were made that BTC could reach $70,000 by the end of the year. Billionaire investor Bill Miller expects that in the next three to five years, financial advisors will start recommending a 1% to 3% allocation of BTC in portfolios, as it is the only economic entity whose supply is unaffected by demand or price. The demand for BTC is expected to grow faster than its supply, which will not increase, unlike gold. Samara Cohen, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock's ETF and Index, stated that most investors are new cryptocurrency enthusiasts, with data showing that currently, 80% of buyers are direct investors, and among those, 75% have never held iShares. In the past five trading days, net inflows into spot BTC ETFs exceeded $2.1 billion, with BlackRock accounting for half of the sales. Last week, the net inflow for BTC spot ETFs was $2.13 billion, marking the fourth highest week to date, maintaining inflows for six consecutive days. The net inflow for ETH spot ETFs last week was $7.889 million. According to HODL15Capital data, as of October 18, 41 BTC ETFs held a total of 1.126 million BTC, valued at $77 billion.
The 12 U.S. spot BTC ETFs have set a record for the highest net asset value since their launch in January, currently holding BTC valued at over $66.1 billion, surpassing the previous record of $62.6 billion set in early June. Since the market close on the 10th of this month, the total value of BTC held by these funds has increased by about $11 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT increasing by over $3 billion. On Monday, spot gold opened at $2740/ounce, continuing to set a new historical high. Michael Hartnett, Chief Strategist at Bank of America, stated: Weekly fund flows show a surge in inflows into gold and cryptocurrencies: $23.2 billion flowed into bonds, $21.4 billion into stocks, $1.6 billion into cryptocurrencies, $1.2 billion into gold, and $17.4 billion into cash. The Federal Reserve is determined to cut real rates in the coming quarters, and investors only need to hedge against inflation and the depreciation of the dollar, believing that gold will exceed $3000/ounce. Citibank expects gold prices to reach $3000/ounce in the next 6-12 months. A Bloomberg survey of 411 respondents shows that despite the upcoming U.S. election becoming a major uncertainty, the rebound in U.S. stock markets this year is expected to extend into the final stages of 2024, with the S&P 500 index approaching 6000 points (currently at 5845 points) by the end of the year. This earnings season is expected to boost stock indices, and the strength of corporate performance is viewed as more critical than who wins the November election or the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. About 70 companies in the S&P 500 index have already reported earnings, with 76% exceeding expectations.
Goldman Sachs' main brokerage report states that U.S. stocks not only saw buying for the second consecutive week but also experienced the largest net buying since December 2023, driven by short covering and long buying (1.3:1). Hedge funds have net bought technology stocks for the third consecutive week at the fastest pace in five months. Last week, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.8%, and the Dow rose by 0.96%, all rising for six consecutive weeks, marking the longest weekly streak since the end of 2023. BTC broke through $69,000, accumulating a weekly increase of 10.41%, just a step away from the $70,000 mark. The intensifying U.S. election and expectations for more monetary policy easing are creating an optimistic market sentiment. Thanks to the newly listed traditional markets, U.S. BTC spot ETFs increased their holdings by 32,370 BTC last week. On Monday, Bitcoin rose to $69,500 during the day, with altcoins continuing to rebound, but the U.S. stock index opened lower in the evening, dragging down Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are shifting to continuous monetary easing, with significant gains in gold and U.S. stocks, while the cryptocurrency market is also entering a bull market, and altcoins are finally stirring, hoping for a smooth bull market.
