According to the relevant page information, the transaction amount of the US election on the prediction market Polymarket exceeded 2.1 billion US dollars. Data shows that Trump's probability of winning the US presidential election is temporarily reported at 60.1%, and Harris's probability of winning the election is temporarily reported at 39.9%, with a gap of more than 20 percentage points.
There is less than a month left until the end of the US election. Judging from the data, Trump's chances of winning are far ahead and his chances of being elected are very high. However, from a political perspective, it is not absolutely certain. Risks and accidents still exist until the dust settles. However, from the perspective of cryptocurrency, Trump's election is a big boon to the entire market. On August 27, Trump made a series of major favorable promises to cryptocurrency voters at the Bitcoin Conference, which may become a reality.
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 86.2%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 13.8%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by December is 24.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 73.6%.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a certain impact on the progress of the US election. Powell is a typical Jew. The loose monetary policy means that more funds will flow into the market. However, from the current point of view, the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's policy is not expected to be too large. The expected value of the US CPI in September announced last week was 2.5%, and the actual value announced was 2.4%. This is a relatively large positive for the US economy, indicating that the Federal Reserve has achieved significant results in controlling inflation, and the long-term goal of 2% is within reach.
As the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, global financial markets are showing signs of recovery. Judging from the current data on various economic indicators in the United States, the probability that the Federal Reserve will moderately cut interest rates in November or keep interest rates unchanged is high, and the possibility of continuing large-scale interest rate cuts is small.
From the overall trend, although the market is currently buying actively, the pressure of 70,000 points is obvious to all. The market has repeatedly hit the pressure of 70,000-72,000 points, but has not been effectively broken through. Theoretically, if there is no major positive news this week, there is a risk of a pullback. Be cautious in chasing high prices! The buying enthusiasm of the entire market will also become cautious as the market price rises. This can be clearly felt from the trading volume. Although the plunge in trading volume is due to the weekend, it is more because the price increase has caused the market chips to have a fear of heights.
A market breakthrough requires an opportunity. If Trump is elected in the US election in November, it is indeed a good opportunity, with a chance to stabilize at 70,000 points. However, it is not the right time yet. The probability of a pullback is greater than the probability of continued rise. For those who do contracts, you can try to arrange short orders at 69,000 to 70,000 points. Pay attention to position control and risk!!
In terms of altcoins, except for the leading projects on a few popular public chains in the secondary market, most other altcoins have performed relatively averagely and have not kept up with the pace of BTC’s rise. The trading volume on the SOL chain has been ahead of ETH for ten consecutive trading days, and the projects on the SOL chain are still relatively strong, including MEME coins, and infrastructure on the SOL chain similar to JUP, JTO, etc. The essential difference between the bull market in 2024 and the previous bull market in 2021 is that the funds in the current market are too dispersed, and it is impossible to achieve a sustained general rise in the market. Therefore, in the choice of altcoins, the strong will always be strong, and the weak will basically find it difficult to keep up with the overall rhythm unless there are major positive factors. This is a relatively big test for the investment and research capabilities of the secondary market. The community recommends that you keep an eye on popular tracks and popular public chains, and the strong will always be strong. Focus on the leaders of the MEME track, or projects with better community construction, strong community cohesion, and strong explosive power.
The difficulty of projects in the primary market is even more hellish. It is not recommended to touch them without professional investment research capabilities and a professional team. What you are playing on is the time difference and the information gap. Many times, by the time the leeks know about the project, it is most likely the time to take over. Many well-known KOLs cannot avoid the fate of being cut, let alone the leeks?
There are many opportunities in the 24-hour market. Don't be too impatient. There will always be a day when spring comes and flowers bloom!
